Strategic silence? Why are GCC countries staying out of the Iran war: Key details inside

After several drones and missiles streak across the Middle East sky amid the ongoing war between Iran and the US-Israel, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries remain silent. The six-nation bloc is also quite despite sustaining direct hits on civilian infrastructure, ranging from Dubai’s luxury districts to Saudi oil refineries.

For this silent, the world is still wondering for the answer that why some of the most well-funded militaries in the region aren't joining the fray. The answer lies in a complex mix of economic survival, historical lessons, and a desperate attempt to protect their "Post-Oil" futures.

Abdullah Baabood, an Oman-based political analyst and visiting scholar at the University of Cambridge, told The i Paper that these nations are stepping back due to the economic and reputational damage that has defined themselves as safe havens in a troubled region. “Iran is trying to hit each country where it hurts most,” he said. “So for Dubai, it’s hotels and tourism, in Qatar, they attacked [LNG facility] Ras Laffan.”

Baabood also indicated that the pain has remained in the tolerable range for Gulf countries. The vast majority of incoming drones and missiles were also shot down by the Air defences. He said the priority for the Gulf is “to avoid being dragged into this war at all costs”.

A Middle East analyst at the US Baker Institute, Kristian Ulrichsen, said that the leaders in the region are worried about all those things that could further escalate tension from an increasingly aggressive Iran. “An Iranian regime fighting for survival, feeling it has nothing left to lose, could target desalination facilities in the Gulf that people rely on for water, or go all out in attacking energy infrastructure,” he told The i Paper.

“There is a feeling that if Donald Trump were to decide he’s had enough and declare victory, and the Gulf states were involved, they would be left alone to face any backlash,” Ulrichsen added.

Gulf region had a lot to lose if further drawn into conflict

Andreas Krieg, a Gulf security expert at the War Studies Department of King’s College London, said countries in the region stand to lose significantly if they become more deeply involved in the ongoing conflict. “Iran’s retaliation options against Gulf targets are broad, scalable and politically painful,” he said. “If a Gulf state crosses the line into overt participation in a US-Israeli campaign, it makes itself a standing target not just during the war but afterwards as well.”

He noted that the main priority for governments within the Gulf Cooperation Council is to limit the duration of the war and prevent it from spreading geographically, particularly to avoid their cities, airports and oil facilities turning into frontline targets. Krieg also raised doubts about whether Gulf states could offer more than limited support to the military campaign led by the United States and Israel, which has already carried out thousands of airstrikes on sites across Iran.

He also said that Arab governments could face significant political consequences if they were seen as joining a US-Israeli war against a Muslim-majority country. In Bahrain, authorities have recently increased security deployments as the Sunni-led government monitors the largely Shia population amid public expressions of support for people in Iran.

What is GCC?

The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries are a political and economic union of six Arab nations bordering the Persian Gulf: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. Established in 1981, this alliance aims to promote regional cooperation, security, and economic integration, with a strong focus on shared cultural and Islamic values.