Siberian winds will be particularly chilly this winter. Can West cope with 'Eastern Beast' amid energy crisis?

"Winter is coming. We know what's coming with it," a fictional character Jon Snow (Aegon Targaryen) said this line in the popular TV show "Game of Thrones" to reflect on the adversities that must be fought with all the strength to stop the "Long Night" from descending upon the world.

Ironically, the line fits aptly with the current situation in Europe, which is facing a massive energy crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and the situation is likely to worsen as the winter season approaches with shortages of oil, gas and food.

This winter is likely to be particularly harsh for Europe, with Siberian winds expected to bring unpleasant cold conditions. The important question here is as to what the West will do, or in GoT's context, what "Westeros" will do if another harsh winter like the one in2010–2011 happens again.

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Or how will the West cope if a protracted Arctic blast like the "Beast from the East" that swept through western Europe in 2018 comes again? It would make it harder for the EU to stand with Ukraine.

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Freezing temperatures in European nations in 2018 were caused by an Arctic blast dubbed the "Beast from the East". It was a weather system, which meteorologists blamed on strong winds from Siberia, that led to record low temperatures across Europe.

Now, some analysts have claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping for a chilly winter or a prolonged stretch of subfreezing temperatures so the situation becomes even worse for Europe.

In the aftermath of the EU's support for Ukraine, Russia had cut its gas shipments to the European nations. As the continent struggles with a severe energy crisis, governments in Europe are rushing to be ready for this winter with little room to avoid a worst-case scenario of shortages and blackouts.

"Europe's security of gas supply is facing unprecedented risk as Russia intensifies its use of natural gas supplies as a political weapon," the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in a report in early October.

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Households are being urged to lower their thermostats, and businesses are being urged to find energy savings as part of EU plans to reduce gas consumption by 15% this winter compared to the average.

In fact, the European states have also rushed to fill up their strategic reserves in recent months. They bought extra supplies at record prices from Algeria, Qatar, Norway and the United States among other global gas suppliers.

IEA is an energy consultancy financed by Western nations. The agency is stress-testing if Europe could withstand this winter without Russian gas as according to the agency, Europe's gas storage is around 90 per cent full this winter.

This is definitely some assurance against a major shortage but one must remember that a large proportion of that 90 per cent is made up of imported gas from Russia in previous months.

The agency believes that Europe will make it through without major disruption but some major oil and gas executives have warned that the concerns should be for the winter of 2023, not the coming winter.

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Russell Hardy, who is the CEO of major oil trader Vitol, told CNBC: "We've got a difficult winter ahead, and subsequent to that we've got a more difficult winter in the year ahead of that, because the production that is available to Europe in the first half of 2023 is considerably less than the production we had available to us in the first half of 2022."

The war is far from over. Russia's ties with most of the Western nations have been severed and an increase in production is unlikely. On one side, the oil companies are reporting huge profits, but on the other, people are preparing for difficult winter with possible blackouts. The situation could lead to serious social unrest also.

Gergely Molnar, an IEA gas analyst, told the news agency AFP that one episode that should be remembered is the 'Beast from the East' which really showed how "vulnerable the gas system can be to a major cold spell".

Is West ready for something like the 'Beast from the East'?

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