&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "SCO Summit 2025: Could India-China rapproachement foil US strategy for Indo-Pacific?")
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached Tianjin, China on Saturday. As he prepares to join the SCO Summit from August 31 to September 1, this will carry implications that move far beyond SCO. With the double tariff and India-US relations deteriorating, pushing New Delhi closer to its strategic rival in China. Washington now faces a dilemma will Asia's two biggest economies move beyond strategic de-escalation to trade and security cooperation. One that will foil the US ambitions in Indo-Pacific and plans of an unipolar world order.
What can be a problem for the US?
The United States have long projected India as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific through QUAD. It encouraged India on numerous cases to keep China's maritime and economic power in check but in vain. China did emerge as the second most powerful nation in the world.
Now a growing coordination between India and China will dilute the effects of US sanctions and efforts to end Russian ‘war economy’. India's growing discontent with US could spill over to less defence and maritime collaboration. ASEAN, Middle-East and African countries, will also follow Indian model of hedging between Washington and Beijing for security and trade benefits respectively. Coming together of two large Asian countries will also diminish the US narrative of Chinese revisionism in face of the Western Rule Based Order.
Can India and China come together?
Historically India and China had a complex relation. Territorial disputes at the core of the issue. There had been military stand offs along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), including Aksai Chin, controlled by China but claimed by India and Arunachal Pradesh controlled by India, claimed by China.These repeated clashes along with Indian participation in Quad military drills have displeased Beijing. India also strongly opposed the Belt and Road Initiative by China in Pakistan. India viewed this as a strategic challenge in South Asia. Economically, China remains India’s largest trading partner, but the massive trade deficit estimated at nearly $100billion in 2024–25 has pushed domestic calls to limit Chinese imports and restrict Chinese apps and investments, adding another layer of tension to the bilateral relationship.
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Various analysts and media outlets call this recent thaw as a strategic de-escalation. India and China both can both co operate on trade, as they have a massive bilateral trade approximately $120biilion, cultural and people-to-people exchanges through multilateral platforms like G20, BRICS, SCO. However a complete resolution and closure to border dispute remains unlikely. India is unlikely to stop its participation in Quad military drills and China is unlikely to give up on its BRI investments.
