Rising sea level can endanger 410 million by 2100: Study

A new study finds that in the future unless global emissions are reduced, up to 410 million people will be at risk from sea level rises.

Published in the journal, Nature Communications, the paper finds that currently, 267 million people worldwide live on land less than 2 metres above sea level, this number is expected to rise to 410 million by the year 2100.

Researchers predict this by using Lidar, a remote sensing method, that pulsates laser light across coastal areas to measure elevation on the Earth’s surface.

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Currently, the tropics are most at risk land at 62 per cent, with Indonesia facing the highest threat of land at risk worldwide. According to their predictions, in the future threat to the tropics will increase by 10 per cent, making the population here 72 per cent at risk worldwide, while 59 per cent of the Tropical Asian population will also be at risk.

The lead author of the study Dr Aljosja Hooijer said that while the research was inherently uncertain, for long-term flood prevention higher focus must be given to tropical regions.

A specialist water resources expert for Deltares, Hooijersays that while there are many scientists around the world, looking at long-term scenarios, the urgency is for now. Every day in different parts of the world sea-level rise is happening, mostly in the tropics. “And not just in south-east Asia, it’s also for instance in the Niger delta and Lagos.”

Stressing that this study was not a sea-level rise research project, Dr Hooijer says that the new elevation data model relied on accurate data, which due to its high costs is often not available in all parts of the world adding that the Lidar test of even a small country like the Netherlands can cost up to tens of millions of euros.

A frequent and continuous rise in sea levels, caused by the climate emergency has led to a higher number of frequent and severe storms to occur, which in turn lead to an increase in flood risks in coastal environments.

A survey published last year by Climate and Atmospheric Science aggregated the views of around 106 specialists, also suggested that rising sea levels can reach as high as five metres by 2300, and coastal cities should prepare for such an occurrence.