Race to White House: In first post-Roe presidential elections, abortion rights might be a deciding factor

As the United States prepares to go to polls on November 5, along with the economy, immigrants and health care, abortion rights also stand out as a major election issue. Ten states will be voting to enshrine abortion in their states' laws. These include Montana, Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York and South Dakota.

Voters in these states are being asked to decide how their state should regulate abortion. The topic can act as a game-changer in the presidential elections. In the seven swing states, the vote will act as referendums to gauge how much the right to have an abortion can affect a tight presidential election.

The Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022 after which many states went on to enact abortion restrictions or bans. Pro-choice advocates are hoping that enshrining abortion in states' laws in the elections can help bypass the ups and downs of state courts.

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Abortion rights in 2020 elections

In August 2020, abortion was not a big topic to vote on among both Democrats and Republicans. Only around 40 per cent of voters at the time said abortion was a very important issue to their vote. It mattered more to Trump voters (46%) than Biden voters (35%).

Also Read:Georgia supreme court restores six-week 'heartbeat' abortion ban; White House slams decision

However, after Roe v. Wade was overturned, things changed for it as a voting issue. Pew Research says 67 per cent of Harris supporters say it is an extremely important issue. This is nearly double what Biden voters said four years back. During the midterm elections in 2022, this number stood at 74 per cent.

Among Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump supporters, this number is 35 per cent today, 11 points lower than in 2020.

So, for Democrats, the matter assumes extreme importance. The party is hoping for a larger voter turnout by those who support abortion rights since the topic is on the ballot.

The Dobbs Decision

Swing states can reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate. In the US, voters in certain states largely lean towards a single party and so are known as "safe states". Such states are also known as "red states" where Republicans enjoy more support and "blue states" where Democrats have a bigger backing.

Abortion in swing states is expected to be a major issue this time. These states will largely decide the country’s next president and federal leaders. They are undecided and how they vote will be a referendum on the right to abortion.

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision in 2022 saw the US Supreme Court stating that the Constitution of the United States does not confer a right to abortion. Both Roe v. Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) were overruled by it.

The Dobbs decision was widely criticised for bringing about changes around abortion. Experts say it has made abortion the top issue among voters, and in swing states, it will be a deciding factor.

Also Read:Melania Trump breaks ranks, contradicts husband Donald's views on abortion in memoir

“What we’ve seen in every election since the Dobbs decision is that abortion is at the top of mind for voters — and it’s not just helping voters decide who or what to vote for. It’s actually a turnout driver,” Ryan Stitzlein, vice president of political and government relations at national lobbying group Reproductive Freedom for All, told Stateline.

Swing states and anti-abortion push

Swing states are being flooded with anti-abortion money where lobbying groups Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Women Speak Out PAC are working against the rights.

Trump and other GOP candidates have been focussing on the most controversial type of abortions and those performed in the third trimester while calling Democrats champions of infanticide during campaign rallies.

Going by research polls and the current sentiment, abortion rights are expected to bring in more voters on polling day and play a major role in deciding who wins the White House.