Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reached Thailand to attend the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, however, doubts persist over his meeting with Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammed Yunus.

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While Khalilur Rahman, high representative to the chief adviser, told the press in Dhaka that there was a "high possibility" of a meeting between the two leaders on Friday (Apr 4), PM Modi's itinerary shared by India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) did not mention any such scheduled engagements. The statement only mentions the Indian PM's bilateral meeting with the Prime Minister of Thailand.

Read More | Bangladesh, China sign nine agreements to strengthen bilateral ties

As per reports, Bangladesh formally requested a meeting between Yunus and PM Modi. The MEA had earlier noted that the request was under consideration. Moreover, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in his remarks at the BIMSTEC Ministerial Meeting referred to the northeast as a region that's emerging as a connectivity hub for the BIMSTEC but did not mention Bangladesh.

BIMSTEC is a sub-regional grouping comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand, focused on economic and technical collaboration. Bangladesh is set to take over as the next chair. However, there was no mention of Bangladesh in the MEA's statement about the PM's travel to Thailand for the BIMSTEC Summit. 

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Read More | 'Seven Indian states are landlocked': Yunus invites China to expand, calls Bangladesh 'only guardian of ocean'

India-Bangladesh relations and Hasina's fall 

The relationship between India and Bangladesh has faced turmoil following the overthrow of the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina, and her subsequent flight to India. When protests against former PM Shiekh Hasina began in Bangladesh, the immediate reaction of New Delhi was to call it "an internal matter". Unfortunately for India, the fallout from Hasina’s ouster not only triggered violent reactions against Hasina and her family but also soured people-to-people connect between the two countries. 

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Hasina’s 2024 election victory became controversial amid allegations of vote rigging and manipulation. As she rose to power for the fifth time, Hasina dismissed the student-led protest over reservation law but it ultimately led to her ouster. Following her exit, anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh rose as Delhi was seen as a “friend” of Hasina.

Hasina has since then stayed in India but New Delhi has not responded to Bangladesh’s formal request for her extradition. 

India's outreach to the interim government under Yunus

Muhammed Yunus assumed office after a four-day political vacuum following Sheikh Hasina's ouster after 15 years in power. India said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi received a call from Yunus, wherein the Indian PM reiterated his call for safety and security of the "Hindus and all other minority communities" in Bangladesh. This appeal for the safety of Hindus and minorities in Bangladesh was viewed as partisan by some sections in Dhaka.

Read More | ‘Better to split up Bangladesh than…’: Northeast leader’s response to Yunus remark

PM Modi has not met Yunus yet. Furthermore, the Bangladesh interim head chose China as the first country to visit for a bilateral meeting. Despite this, the Indian PM in March wrote a letter to Yunus to mark Bangladesh’s National Day. He emphasised the importance of mutual sensitivity between the two nations, while referencing the Bangladesh Liberation War as a "shared history." PM Modi reaffirmed India’s commitment to strengthening the bilateral relationship between the two countries.

"This day stands as a testament to our shared history and sacrifices, that have laid the foundation of our bilateral partnership. We remain committed to advancing this partnership, driven by our common aspirations for peace, stability and prosperity, and based on mutual sensitivity to each other's interests and concerns," PM Modi wrote in the letter to Yunus. 

However, ties remain strained over Hasina's continued presence in India.

Read More | PM Modi writes to Yunus, stresses 'mutual sensitivity' in strengthening India-Bangladesh ties

Moreover, whenever elections are scheduled in Bangladesh, BNP may come back to power, which brings to mind memories of India's difficult experience with the BNP government from 2001 to 2006. Back then, Bangladesh harboured anti-India groups and aligned with China and Pakistan. 

On the economic front, Dhaka has turned to China, signing a $1 billion MoU to implement the Teesta Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project after a long-pending Teesta water treaty agreement with India.

On the trade front, Bangladesh is facing a deficit. In FY 2023–24, Bangladesh exported only $1.97 billion worth of goods to India, while imports from India soared to $14.01 billion, resulting in a  $12 billion trade gap. 

Bangladesh's growing ties with China and Pakistan

Bangladesh's growing bonhomie with Pakistan 54 years after its independence from the country is a cause of concern for India. Along with this, Yunus' recent visit to China and his remark claiming the northeast as "landlocked" and Bangladesh as the "only guardian of the ocean" has also raised eyebrows.

The arrival of a cargo ship carrying rice from Pakistan at the Chittagong port in early March not only revived a maritime link between the two nations but also marked a paradigm shift in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations. Moreover, the commemoration of Muhammad Ali Jinnah's death anniversary at the National Press Club in Dhaka marks a shift in people-to-people engagement between the two countries.