Philippines–China confrontations over the South China Sea; Taiwan Strait tensions: The next war is brewing

One day after Philippine authorities confirmed the removal of a Chinese floating platform from Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal, a new Chinese research vessel was spotted in waters outside Scarborough Shoal, Philippine media reports claimed on Thursday (Jun 18). The Philippines is at the forefront of regular tensions with China in the South China Sea (SCS), but it is not the only one. Even as the China-focused US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) changed its name back to the original US Pacific Command (PACOM), concerns among nations in the region that have disputes with China in the SCS are far from over. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with the Philippines as its current chair, is pushing for a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea to be concluded by the end of this year. Slowly but surely, a future war is shaping up along the South China Sea. Here is the current picture, and the prognosis:

The Philippines has the most active tensions with China

The final removal of the contentious Chinese floating research platform and antenna at the Scarborough Shoal lagoon came after at least a month of Philippine protests following the tracking and detection of the structure. This is part of ongoing tensions between China and the Philippines, a US military ally. In April, China deployed fishing boats, vessels and a floating barrier at the entrance to Scarborough Shoal, according to Reuters satellite imagery. The news agency reported in April that cyanide was found in bottles from Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal, with the Philippines warning of possible sabotage.

Reports from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the International Crisis Group said China had accused the Philippines of an illegal landing on Sandy Cay. Mutual accusations continued over research vessels and personnel landings in the SCS area. Persistent harassment of Filipino fishing vessels by the Chinese Coast Guard, as well as patrols and militia activity around Second Thomas Shoal, Sabina Shoal and Reed Bank, have been well documented by multiple agencies and the Crisis Group. In short, the Philippines appears to be the most direct challenger of Chinese incursions, Coast Guard harassment, construction activity and territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Taiwan vs China: War could be just a miscalculation away

In recent weeks, there have been multiple tense stand-offs and verbal confrontations between Chinese and Taiwanese coast guard vessels near the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands), according to reports by Reuters, the Taipei Times and others. In January, Taiwanese media reported a Chinese reconnaissance drone flying over the Pratas Islands. These are only the latest incidents in years of confrontations, maritime boundary violations in the Taiwan Strait, and airspace incursions by Chinese fighter jets. China has frequently criticised the continuing military financing and weapons supply to Taiwan by the US. Aerial and naval confrontations as well as military exercises in the region risk miscalculations that could lead to an open conflict.

Vietnam vs China: Rising tensions over Chinese construction activity in the South China Sea

In March this year, Vietnam protested China's land reclamation and construction activity at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands. According to the CFR, the activity could be aimed at creating a runway. Bloomberg reported intensified Chinese activity, citing ship-tracking data. Alongside Vietnamese island fortifications in the Spratly Islands, the risks of a clash are increasing. Reports in the East Asia Forum and elsewhere have cited continuing Chinese monitoring and harassment of Vietnamese boats near the Paracel Islands and the Vanguard Bank area.

Malaysia vs China: Increasing Chinese Coast Guard presence

The presence of the Chinese Coast Guard near Malaysian oil and gas platforms was highlighted by Malaysian Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin in a recent interview with The Japan Times. Such reports have centred on the strategically important Kasawari gas field in Malaysia's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In the interview, the minister said Malaysia defines physical disruptions as the "red line". The two countries continue to hold bilateral maritime dialogues, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Indonesia and China's grey-zone tactics

The so-called grey-zone tactics employed by Chinese vessels and research ships have been ongoing in the North Natuna Sea and associated waters. This appears to be aimed at testing Indonesia's responses, according to reports on the 9DashLine website. This is a continuation of earlier patterns of Chinese activity in the area.

Prognosis: A post-Trump US may be less accommodating of Chinese activity in Taiwan and the South China Sea

US President Donald Trump, as recently as Thursday, reiterated his idea of a G2 arrangement, a grouping comprising only the United States and China. This reflects his view that China remains a key trade and business partner despite significant differences between the two countries. But the US strategic competition with China might only increase once Trump leaves office in two years. The nations that continue to face challenges from China in the South China Sea could be involved in a military conflict, potentially with US backing of the antagonists, particularly Taiwan and the Philippines.