Musk says India's birth rate has fallen below 'replacement level': What the term means and what official data reveals? | WION Decodes

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on Saturday (June 6), in a post on X, said that India's birth rate has fallen below replacement. Musk shared data by a media outlet that claimed that India's fertility rate has fallen below replacement for the first time in the country's history, “declining from a TFR (Total Fertility Rate) of 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade. Delhi's fertility rate now sits at 1.2, lower than Finland's.” "India's birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India's birth rate fell below replacement many years ago," the billionaire said in a post on X. But, what's the truth behind his claim?

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What was the data Musk cited?

Musk cited data shared by AF Post, which in turn referenced a June 4 article by The Economist reporting that India's fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level. The report was titled 'India's population will soon be falling-probably quite fast.' The Economist report said that India is experiencing a rapid "baby bust," with models suggesting the population will peak around 2046 at 1.6 billion before declining to roughly 1 billion by 2100. Driven by rising education and urban lifestyle shifts, the national fertility rate has dropped to 1.9, prompting warnings of economic strain if the nation does not capitalise on its shrinking demographic window.

Is there any truth in the data cited by Musk and The Economist?

Yes, the data cited in the report is true. In 2025, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of World Population (SOWP) Report said that India's total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years. This means that on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain. This pattern has emerged most likely due to the large the population size of the country. The UNFPA report said that though India's fertility rate has declined over the years, India has a population of well over a billion, and wide inequalities persist, despite significant improvements in health and education. However, if The Economist's analysis is to be believed, then population peak will happen around 2046 and it will slow down thereafter.

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What Indian government data actually says?

The Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, published by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), confirmed the UNFPA report as it also stated that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1. In 2022, the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), executed by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare alongside the International Institute for Population Sciences caught the first dip to a national TFR of 2.0. This survey provided deep granular insights into contraception use, maternal healthcare, and marriage age across all districts of India.

When Musk says “fallen below replacement”, he is actually speaking about replacement-level fertility. This refers to the average number of children required per woman to maintain a stable population from one generation to the next. There are a few states in India that has fertility rate above replacement-level. These include Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. While many other states and union territories like Delhi — 1.2, Tamil Nadu — 1.3, Kerala — 1.3, West Bengal — 1.3 have very low fertility rates.

This is not the first time Musk has commented on population size and fertility rate. In January 2025, Musk responded "Yes" to projections mapping a drastic population decline in India and China by the year 2100, where data showed India's numbers potentially shrinking by 400 million people due to sustained sub-replacement fertility. In April 2023, when the United Nations announced that India had officially surpassed China as the world's most populous nation, Musk shared his perspective on X by simply writing, “Demographics is destiny.” Musk has pushed the idea that low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming. He has brushed aside concerns for resource usage and asked people to have at least three children to maintain civilizational stability.

Why is lower fertility rate is a concern?

States with higher fertility rates will have younger population and continued population growth, resulting in more demand for schools, healthcare, housing, jobs, and other public services. In contrast, regions with very low fertility rates can reduce pressure on resources in the short term, it can lead to a higher proportion of elderly people in the population over time. As the population ages, there are fewer working-age people available to support retirees through taxes, healthcare systems, and social welfare programs. Analysts say that if low birth rates continue for several decades, each new generation will be smaller than the one before it. This can eventually cause population decline, labour shortages, and economic challenges unless compensated by migration from other regions with younger populations. This is a trend already being observed in countries such as Japan, South Korea and Italy.