Netanyahu will 'do anything to stay in power': Is Israel looking at another election?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has lost the decisive parliamentary majority, with the departure of major ultra-Orthodox allies. This means that there is a strong possibility of early elections, although not immediately. United Torah Judaism, led by Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael factions with 7 seats, and the Shas Aryeh Deri with 11 seats, recently left the coalition, reducing the number of coalition seats to a mere 49 seats in the Knesset of 120 seats. Yet new elections are not imminent. The government will fall only if there is a key vote on any issue, particularly disbanding the Knesset. If those parties do not join such a vote, that would bring down the government; it would not matter. The Knesset will be back from its break in October, thus giving an appropriate window of time for Netanyahu. As of now, it could hold indefinitely as a minority government.

Who is Yuli Edelstein? Why is he the scapegoat?

Yuli Edelstein, a former prisoner of Zion in the Soviet Union, immigrated to Israel in 1987. He is the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs & Defence Committee, tasked with the new legislation to regulate IDF conscription for ultra‑Orthodox Haredi men.

"The committee I chair will only produce a real draft law that will significantly increase the IDF's recruitment base. … They are fighting for us, I will fight for them," said Edelstein as quoted by Israel National News.

Under his leadership, a framework was drafted which seems non-negotiable to the Haredi man. He has pushed for sanctions on draft dodgers and refused to endorse a broadly diluted exemption bill. He reportedly said that without these sanctions, it would not be a conscription law, but a bluffing law.

"There will be personal and institutional sanctions… We want to bring soldiers to the IDF, and therefore, the law that comes out of this committee will include a comprehensive and inclusive answer." Edelstein quoted by the Times of Israel.

Netanyahu unconvincingly tried to replace him, but failed to do so. Edelstien has reportedly said he is representing that side of the voter base whose families are sacrificing for the whims and wishes of the ultra-Orthodox jews.

Heradi dictate the stability of the Knesset

For the entire history of Israel, the ultra-Orthodox of the Jewish population have been by definition isolationists and are very little integrated into the modern institutions of parliamentary democracy, and have also enjoyed a blanket draft exemption from the IDF conscription. The community prefers to stay inside the Sheebat.

Each time any government has tried to pass a law in the Knesset which is too punitive and tries to conscript them in a framework of punishment for trying to avoid drafting, they have turned around and left the coalition. This becomes of paramount interest at the time of war, such as now. It has displeased and angered the common Israeli citizen for a long time. Israelis have taken to the courts over the issue, and the Supreme Court has ruled numerous times that there must be legislation in Israel that eventually drafts the ultra-Orthodox Haredi man to establish equality between the citizens.

Netanyahu will 'do anything to stay in power'

From 1996 to 2022 (the last election in Israel), Benjamin Netanyahu and his party Likud, in his entire political career, have never secured a clear majority. The highest was 36 seats in 2020. Each time, these ultra-Orthodox parties have held a major lever within the Knesset.

But the ultra-Orthodox party and other parties do not have an interest in an early election. They have enjoyed a significantly better situation and are unlikely to have the same in any other government, according to all polls. This is just a ceremonial exit to hold a sword over Netanyahu's government. This also leads from the fact that most Israeli governments, almost all of them, have never depended on the Arab-Israeli parties for a majority in the Knesset. Specifically, the 2018 government of Netanyahu fell because of the Haredi military draft law.

It is one of the issues that divides the right wing of Israel, as well as the political zionists from the religious zionists. Netanyahu and the Likud have explicitly made it clear that they would care little to sacrifice the sentiment of the majority of Israeli voters to keep the coalition together.

Political interest overrides the good of the state, said Dahlia Scheindlin, columnist and political commentator of Haaretz. However, it is debatable what is good for the state; the long-drawn war, which is frankly an abuse of the Palestinians, has been vehemently opposed by the Israeli citizens. There are many senior Likud voters and religious Zionists who desperately want the ultra-Orthodox to be drafted to end the situation. The war many do not want, the ultra-Orthodox continue to preach for, but do not want to fight.