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Tel Aviv
If 'leaked' US intelligence documents are to be believed, Israel will strike Iran in the coming days using air-launched missiles that would target Tehran's military facilities.
Israel has been reportedly planning a response to Iran after Tehran fired a volley of ballistic missiles at the Jewish nation on October 1 following the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon on 27 September in an Israeli intelligence-led operation.
Watch: Iran-Israel War: What Are Israel's Targets In Iran?
The purportedly leaked documents shared on the messaging app Telegram were dated 15-16 October and are alleged to contain the assessment of the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency on Israel's military plans.
The two documents were based on satellite imagery and other intelligence, with very specific details of Israeli preparations, according to reports.
The US is investigating how the alleged intelligence documents got leaked online, which in itself is a possible proof that those are genuine, at least partially.
There is speculation that the documents were leaked deliberately to thwart Israel's plans.
The highly classified documents, marked 'Top Secret', could have been obtained through hacking by Iran.
Noting that President Joe Biden was "deeply concerned" about the leak, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday (Oct 21) that it was not yet determined if they were a result of a hack or a leak.
The whole thing is an embarrassment for the US, as the documents, if true, showed how Washington spies on its allies as much as its enemies.
The documents are being seen as genuine by analysts due to the presence of a bunch of code words and acronyms such as FGI and TK.
FGI means Foreign Government Intelligence and TK stands for Talent Keyhole, denoting satellite-based Signals Intelligence or SIGINT and Imagery Intelligence or IMINT, the BBC said in a report.
The documents were possibly meant for the Five Eyes, the intelligence alliance of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The plan's details were outed even as the US was trying to dissuade Israel from attacking oil facilities and nuclear installations of Iran, for fear of repercussions for global trade.
So, how will Israel's attack on Iran unfold as per alleged US intel documents?
The documents indicate that the Israeli Air Force would use long-range Air-Launched Ballistic Missiles or ABLMs on Iran.
These ABLMs were named in the documents as the Golden Horizon and Rocks systems.
Rocks system can be launched on targets both above and below ground.
Golden Horizon might be a reference to the Blue Sparrow missile system which has a range of around 2,000km, according to the BBC report.
The ABLMs may be chosen due to their capability to target Iran without having to fly over other countries in the region like Jordan.
Also read: Israel dismantles Iran ‘spy network’ in country, arrests seven citizens
The attack might be a far greater version of its ABLM strike on Iran's radar site near Isfahan in April, as per analysts.
Contrary to the fears that Israel might hit oil facilities, the documents suggest it might strike Iran's military targets, though these targets were not named, nor the timing of the possible operation.
So if Tel Aviv will not target Iran's nuclear or energy facilities, the next possible option could be the military bases of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps or IRGC and its Basij militia.
IRGC and Basij are known to have trained and equipped Iran's proxies in West Asian countries like Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels, who target Israel.
When will Israel attack Iran?
The timing of Israel's possible strike on Iran is still up in the air.
Iran itself had waited nearly two weeks to respond to an Israeli strike in Damascus, Syria, that killed some senior IRGC commanders in April.
There's fear in Washington that the Israeli strike any time before the US presidential election on November 5 would be damaging to the process. Israel could utilise the twilight zone between the two US presidencies to carry out the attack.
Will Iran- Israel conflict become a nuclear war?
The US documents do not mention any nuclear deterrent preparations from Israel.
This is significant as there's consternation in the US and international community that Iran may go nuclear on Israel.
Though officially still a non-nuclear nation that uses atomic energy for peaceful purposes, Iran has the capability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade as per Israeli assessments.
Israel is a nuclear power but does not publicly acknowledge it, and there's no certainty on the exact nature or number of its arsenal.
(With inputs from agencies)