Growing disparity in naval power, China's dominance raises concerns for US navy

A recent US Navy briefing slide has drawn attention to the concerning gap between China and the United States in terms of shipbuilding capacity and naval force sizes. The data compiled by the Office of Naval Intelligence reveals that China's shipbuilders are over 200 times more capable than United States in producing surface warships and submarines. This raises concerns about the US Navy's ability to challenge Chinese fleets and maintain its forces in potential high-end conflicts.

China's shipbuilding capacity

The slide illustrates the stark difference in shipbuilding capacity between China and the United States. China's shipyards have a capacity of approximately 23.25 million tonnes, while the United States has less than 100,000 tonnes.

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China's shipbuilding capacity is at least 232 times greater than that of the United States. The slide also highlights that China's naval production constitutes over 70 per cent of its overall national shipbuilding revenue, whereas the United States' naval production is estimated to be around 95 per cent.

Projected battle force sizes

The briefing slide includes projected battle force sizes for the US Navy and the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) between 2020 and 2035.In 2020, the PLAN had 355 battle force ships, while the US Navy had 296. By 2035, the gap is expected to widen significantly, with China projected to have 475 battle force ships compared to the United States' 305 to 317.

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China's People's Liberation Army Navy already is the largest naval fleet globally in terms of total vessels and continues to acquire modern and capable designs, including aircraft carriers.

Shipyard capacity

During a US congressional hearing in February, Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro expressed concerns about China's shipyard capacity, pointing out the significant threat it poses.

He highlighted that China has 13 shipyards, with some individual shipyards having more capacity than all of the United States' shipyards combined.

This disparity in shipyard capacity has a profound impact on the ability to sustain ships.

The circulating slide now emphasises the importance of shipyard capacity by noting that over 50 dry docks are capable of accommodating an aircraft carrier.

China is actively working to expand its carrier fleets, indicating their focus on developing yards capable of supporting larger surface ships and submarines.

Challenges faced by the US Navy

The U.S. Navy recognises the limitations of the slide saying it is not a definitive data set and considers it a living document.

“The slide was developed by the Office of Naval Intelligence from multiple public sources as part of an overall brief on strategic competition," a US Navy spokesperson told The War Zone.

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"The slide provides context and trends on China’s shipbuilding capacity. It is not intended as a deep-dive into the PRC [People's Republic of China's] commercial shipbuilding industry," the spokesperson said adding, "It’s been iterated on over time and the unclassified sources used most recently were commercially-available shipbuilding data, publicly-available U.S. Navy long-range shipbuilding plans from the 2023 Presidential Budget (PB23), and the publicly-discussed approximate projected future PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] force."

The widening gap in naval power between China and the United States raises concerns about the US Navy's ability to challenge Chinese ambitions.

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