Global recession incoming? Three Wall Street leaders enlist possible reasons for the economic doomsday

In a world which is still feeling the after-effects of a deadly global pandemic and simultaneously witnessing a geopolitical modern war unfold; investors everywhere are assessing the long-term consequences of these events. The concoction of the aforementioned circumstances has led experts to cast a warning that we stand at the cusp of a global recession, primarily due to rising inflation and the destruction of supply chains.

Now, three Wall Street leaders have laid down three warning signs that could be the precursor to an economic downturn. One, that is expected to dwarf'The Great Recession' of 2008.

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A deadlier future pandemic

Sam Bankman-Fried, Co-founder, FTX believes that the world is not prepared to handle yet another future pandemic. Especially, one, that is much more deadly and has a higher fatality rate. COVID-19 showed the absolute worst of humankind as people fought over trivial matters and remained divided on the best way to fight the invisible enemy.

"There was no coordination in terms of what the response should be. If you look at where we are today, we have not started putting any of those processes in place that we should have had last time," said Sam.

Sam considers that Covid has had a massive negative impact on the world economy. Sky-high inflation, rising interest rates and limping stock market are a few of the indicators that our Covid mitigation programmes did more harm than good. Thus, if a future pandemic was to arrive just now, the economic order of the world will go for a toss as we are not remotely prepared.

Read More:Major economies to enter recession in the next 12 months: Report

Labour shortage

Meanwhile, Abby Joseph Cohen, a Columbia Business School professor and former senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs is of the view that a reduction in the labour force, whether it be the service sector or research and development field, could cause the next big financial catastrophe.

Citing the example of America, Cohen remarked that the country was built on the foundations laid by the immigrants. These foreigners came to American soil, made it their own and contributed to the growth story, which allowed America's GDP to dwarf that of nearly every nation on the planet, for close to a century.

However, the recent trend of not being welcome enough towards immigrants had had a negative effect. Not only the economy is shrinking in real time with high inflation, but the lack of labour strength also means that there will be no future scientists, doctors or engineers coming to the fore.

Cohen is worried that the pipeline is not being created. The fabled 'American Dream' is fading as successive generations are finding it extremely hard to do better than their predecessors. The wages have not risen, and the median income has not kept up with inflation.

Ultimately, the middle class is finding it difficult to maintain stability. And if the health of the middle class deteriorates, a country can fall apart on seams, says Cohen.

"What has happened is that this rise in inflation has pulled apart the curtains. Now we see much more clearly where these problems are and where the issues are."

Deglobalisation of the world order

Lastly, Ken Moelis, Founder and CEO, Moelis & Co. is of the view that deglobalisation of the planet, which has already started, may affect the countries that do not have ample resources to sustain on their own.

Earlier, a country like Germany had outsourced everything, right from its military to the USA tofinancial management to the EU and energy supply as well as end market to Russia and China respectively. However, in the immediate aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and a sluggish Chinese economy, Berlin has been seen huffing and puffing.

While Germany still may have the resources to get back on its feet, owing to its developed nation status, other small nations, particularly the African nations, may not have the same luxury. These countries have grown in a major waydue to globalisation. However, if the cycle stops, they may soon go bust."Each country will move to protect their own citizens. And as a result, they might deglobalize ahead of you," statedKen.

(With inputs from agencies)

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