Explained: Everything about Brazil's heated presidential election

On Sunday, Brazilians will cast their ballots in one of the year's most carefully watched elections.

Former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro will square off. All of the governorships, 27 state and district legislature seats, all of the lower house seats, and a third of the Senate seats in Brazil will also be up for election.

WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?

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Despite there being 11 potential candidates, polls indicate that only Bolsonaro and Lula stand a chance of winning.

Bolsonaro (left) and Lula (right). Photo credits: AFP

Bolsonaro, a former army captain who was elected in 2018, has pushed to enforce his conservative agenda in the biggest nation in Latin America, but he has come under fire for failing to raise living standards and for making remarks that were widely perceived as misogynistic and racist.

He rejects what he refers to as "gender ideology" and called the coronavirus "a little fever." Federal safeguards for the Amazon rainforest have been systematically undermined by the administration. In addition, he made unfounded attacks on the validity of Brazil's computerised voting system and cast doubt on his ability to gracefully concede loss.

Lula's popularity increased while he was in office as he used a strong economy to significantly widen Brazil's social safety net. However, the economy deteriorated, his hand-picked successor was deposed, and numerous of his allies were sent to prison in the years after his resignation. Due to corruption accusations, Lula himself spent 19 months in prison before they were dropped for procedural reasons.

HOW DOES EVERYTHING WORK?

The voting booths are open from 8 a.m., Brasilia time (1100 GMT), to 5 p.m. The voting is all electronic, so results will come in quickly—probably within a few hours of the polls shutting.

If no candidate wins with more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election will be held on October 30 between the top two contenders, most likely Bolsonaro and Lula.

WHO IS WINNING?

Although some polls suggest the former president's margin is significantly greater, all major surveys show him leading by at least 8 percentage points. He was ahead by about 17 points, according to a Monday poll by pollster IPEC.

Major surveys, however, are divided on whether Lula has the support necessary to win in the first round with a majority of the vote.

The turnout is another problem. Although Bolsonaro has a larger base of supporters than Lula does, there are signs that Bolsonaro's constituency is more fervent.

WILL IT BE PEACEFUL?

The biggest question regarding the vote is possibly that one.

In Brazil, political violence is increasing. Recent months have seen a number of Lula supporters—and at least one Bolsonaro supporter—murdered because of their political beliefs.

Bolsonaro has stated numerous times that he might not accept defeat in an election while asserting that the army is on his side. Most observers believe that a military takeover in the event of a Bolsonaro defeat is unlikely, but many worry about an extended period of political unrest and economic hardship.

Under Bolsonaro, there has been a sharp increase in gun ownership, and the president is generally supported politically by the rank-and-file police personnel, making for a potentially explosive combination.

(With inputs from agencies)

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