During the first term, US President Donald Trump held a series of historic conversations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over the nuclear proliferation. In 2018, the first summit in Singapore concluded with a joint statement with vague commitments to denuclearisation.
Security experts have warned that following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last month could step up North Korea to extend the development and procurement of nuclear weapons for its survival. They also noted that the attacks could weaken efforts toward denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula, a goal which China also supports. In addition, experts said the mounting pressure of the US on North Korea could destabilise the region and fuel nuclear proliferation.
“North Korean leaders may confirm their previous assessment: that [US President Donald] Trump acts for reasons that are not ‘security’ or geopolitical-related. He is therefore an emotional, unpredictable force, and not one that is trustworthy at all," Stephen Costello, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said, the South China Morning Post reported.
Niklas Swanstrom, executive director of the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy, suggested that US strikes on Iran might prompt North Korea to make its nuclear weapons more mobile and harder to target, strengthen its second-strike capabilities, and invest significantly in underground bunkers and backup production infrastructure.
“Any remaining possibility of North Korean denuclearisation will be effectively terminated, as the regime will view nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantee of survival,” Swanstrom said.
During the first term, US President Donald Trump held a series of historic conversations with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un over the nuclear proliferation. In 2018, the first summit in Singapore concluded with a joint statement with vague commitments to denuclearisation. Later in Hanoi, Vietnam, the talks ended abruptly without a deal.
Meanwhile, experts warned that increased US pressure was expected to create regional instability that would be unfavourable for China, where it can face a complex strategic environment. An expert on North Korea at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies said that the impact on China is quite “evident” adding that it deepened concerns in Beijing about the possibility of future strikes targeting North Korea, according to a report in the South China Morning Post.
“China will also warily watch out for any particular US actions that could increase the escalation ladder, such as US-led joint military exercises or other provocative military posture,” Niu said.
China and North Korea share a border covering more than 1,300 km (808 miles), mostly along the Yalu and Tumen rivers and a mountain range. This close geographical connection means Beijing is highly sensitive to any instability or security threats near its border.
“China’s primary interest is maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula to prevent refugee flows, economic disruption, and potential conflict near its borders,” Niklas Swanstrom said.
China backs the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and supports resolving tensions through dialogue, while maintaining regional stability as a top priority. It also maintains that North Korea’s security, economic, and political concerns must be addressed in any nuclear discussions.
Beijing has promoted a "dual suspension" strategy, calling for South Korea and the US to stop joint military exercises in exchange for North Korea pausing its nuclear and missile activities.
However, nuclear non-proliferation efforts could be jeopardised, as China's stance on denuclearisation is also driven by concerns that Pyongyang’s nuclear advancements might push South Korea or Japan to consider building their own nuclear weapons, according to analyst Niu.