Cuba REGIME CHANGE by end of 2026? Trump wants it to 'cement his legacy', claims report

Donald Trump’s administration is actively seeking regime change in Cuba by the end of 2026, something the US president thinks would ‘cement his legacy’, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday (Jan 21), citing officials in the know. The push follows the forced ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a US special forces operation earlier this month. US officials cited in the report said Trump believes that ending the Castro era would “cement his legacy and do what President John F Kennedy failed to do in the 1960s.” Here is what the WSJ report says and what it means.

But why Cuba?

One of the last-standing Communist regimes in the world, Cuba has defied US disruption efforts for decades since the beginning of the Cold War.

What is the US planning to do with Cuba?

The strategy appears to be multi-pronged, including a search for government insiders in Cuba for a deal that would end the Communist rule. Economic pressure is another aspect, according to the article titled The US Is Actively Seeking Regime Change in Cuba by the End of the Year.

The US assessment is that the Cuban economy is on the brink of collapse, weakened by the loss of support from Venezuela that had provided much of Cuba’s oil and energy needs as a satellite state.

US officials see the Maduro operation as a blueprint for Venezuela

Much of what the US did in Venezuela could be repeated for Cuba: escalating sanctions, cutting off oil subsidies and supplies. The tactics could even involve targeting Cuba’s famed overseas medical missions.

“Incompetent Marxists who destroyed their country”

A White House official cited in the report described Cuba’s rulers as “incompetent Marxists who destroyed their country.”

The State Department has long held that it is in US national security interests for Cuba to be ‘competently run by a democratic government’ and to refuse to host adversaries’ military and intelligence services.

Deal or disruption? The Trump plan for Cuba

Trump’s approach seems to be one of deal-making rather than explicit regime change through military intervention. Trump has already made several indicative public statements.

“I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he posted on social media on January 11. In the same post, he warned that “NO MORE OIL OR MONEY” would go to Cuba.

Echoing Trump, the White House official cited in the WSJ said Cuba should “make a deal before it’s too late.”

Trump is looking to make deals where possible, and to take advantage of opportunities as they come up, even as pressure is escalated and negotiation is offered as an ‘off-ramp’, said the report.

“The regime has to make a choice to step down or to better provide for its people,” the report cited Jeremy Lewin, the State Department’s acting under-secretary for foreign assistance, as saying.

Is it easy to remove the Cuban regime?

While it started as a communist regime under Fidel Castro, Cuba has essentially been ruled directly or indirectly by the late leader’s family, including his brother Raúl Castro. Cuba’s single-party system has been resilient in spite of conspiracies and efforts to weaken it. There is a lack of significant internal opposition. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has rejected any surrender or capitulation based on coercion.

Cuba and the US have long had tense ties, marked by decades of embargoes and political hostility. Some of it was eased during Democrat President Barack Obama's term, but Trump further tightened US Cuba policy.