China's population falls to a 60 year low; demographers predict nation 'will get old before it gets rich'

For the first time in 60 years, China’s population has fallen. 2022 saw the nation’s population take a historic turn to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizens’ numbers.

As per Reuters, this marks the beginning of profound implications for the economy of the nation. The drop, which is believed to be the worst since China’s great famine of 1961, means that Beijing’s neighbour India will become the world’s most populous nation this year.

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China’s National Bureau of Statistics figures shows that by the end of 2022, the nation’s population has dropped to 1.41175 billion with a fall of roughly 850,000. The long-term prediction by UN experts is that in roughly three decades, or by 2050, the population will shrink by 109 million. This is a three-fold increase from a previous decline prediction made in 2019.

Last year, the nation’s birth rate was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, a fall from 7.52 births in 2021. Compared to this, deaths per 1,000 were at a high of 7.37 in 2022, while in 2021 the nation recorded 7.18 deaths per 1,000. 2022's death rate as per Reuters was the highest since the 1974 Cultural revolution.

This fall has been credited to the Chinese one-child policy that was imposed between 1980 and 2015. Apart from this, recent years’ high education costs, as well as child-rearing costs, are also blamed.

Demographers predict that the population fall might mean that “China will get old before it gets rich”.

Reuters quotes demographer Yi Fuxian as saying, “China’s demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker than expected. China will have to adjust its social, economic, defence and foreign policies.”

(With inputs from agencies)

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