Is BRICS’ importance waning? Why Xi and Putin are skipping the Brazil summit

The leaders of Russia and China, two of BRICS’ most influential founding members, have decided not to attend the upcoming summit in Brazil. For the first time in over a decade, Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend a BRICS summit. Instead, Premier Li Qiang will represent Beijing in Brazil. The official explanation mentions “scheduling conflicts”, but the lack of clarity has prompted speculation that China may be reconsidering the group’s strategic value, especially after its rapid expansion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is also skipping the summit, a move widely linked to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against him. Brazil, the host nation, is a signatory to the ICC statute, and though it hasn’t indicated it would act on the warrant, Putin is avoiding any potential embarrassment for his hosts. He had similarly withdrawn from last year’s summit in South Africa over the same legal concerns.

Putin stands accused by the ICC of playing a key role in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children, a charge that has further isolated him from international platforms.

Expansion may have diluted the bloc’s core vision

BRICS was originally formed as a unified voice of emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, positioning itself as a counterweight to the G7 and Western dominance.

But the group’s recent expansion to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE has made it less ideologically cohesive. Many of the new members are authoritarian regimes, and not all share the original BRICS focus on reforming global governance or promoting multilateralism. This ideological drift could be part of why China and Russia are choosing to step back from active participation.

Brazil, the summit host, sees BRICS as a platform to champion inclusive global governance, rather than an arena to vent frustration at the West. According to Antonio Patriota, Brazil’s ambassador to the UK and former foreign minister, a shift towards a multipolar world is already underway, thanks in part to past US policies under Donald Trump.

Speaking recently in London, Patriota said, “The US, through its policies, including on tariffs and sovereignty, is accelerating the transition to multipolarity in different ways.”

Brazil’s proposals for this year’s summit include:

• Green energy cooperation

• Vaccine collaboration

• Expanding Most-Favoured Nation status within the WTO

The absence of Putin and Xi, both known for focusing heavily on anti-West narratives, may help Brazil steer the summit toward more constructive discussions on reform and global cooperation.

A sign of internal strain, or strategy?

While BRICS still presents itself as a powerful bloc, internal contradictions are becoming more visible. India remains wary of China. Brazil is trying to avoid being seen as anti-West. And some of the new members have divergent economic goals or existing partnerships with Western institutions.

Xi’s absence, in particular, comes at a time when the US is retreating from global leadership, offering China a rare opportunity to take centre stage. Why Beijing would choose to pass on this chance remains unclear, and could signal a recalibration of its global alliances.

Patriota dismissed the idea that a multipolar world would be chaotic. “There is strong support for preserving multilateralism, but that does not mean that we need to preserve it as it stands,” he said.

But he also warned that waiting too long to reform existing systems could be dangerous, “Unless there is a strong movement towards reform now, we run the risk of reaching a tipping point.”