Beijing’s naval expansion: New images hint at 2027 launch for China’s fourth aircraft carrier

China's fourth aircraft carrier, widely believed to be its first nuclear-powered one, could be launched as early as next year as Beijing builds a fleet able to project naval and air power far beyond its shores, according to US researchers, the South China Morning Post reported. A 2027 launch would coincide with the centenary of the People's Liberation Army on August 1. Beijing has previously used major military anniversaries to showcase developments in its armed forces.

In an updated assessment on Tuesday (Oct 27), the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said satellite imagery from this month showed the vessel, commonly called the Type 004, at a construction stage similar to that of the Fujian, China's third carrier, in May 2021. The Fujian was launched about a year later, in June 2022. Analysts cautioned, however, that the Type 004's larger size, potentially more complex propulsion system and any unforeseen problems could alter its schedule. Beijing does not disclose construction timelines.

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The images show the ship in a dry dock at Dalian Shipyard in northeastern China, without its flight deck or island superstructure. A launch does not mean a carrier is ready for service: the Fujian was commissioned only in November last year, more than three years after launch.

Brian Hart, deputy director of the CSIS China Power Project and a co-author of the assessment, said a launch by the end of 2027 or early 2028 would not surprise him if Fujian's timeline is followed. CSIS put the unfinished hull at about 322 metres long and 46 metres wide, though final dimensions are unclear. An anonymous imagery analyst estimated the hull at about 327 metres and said the finished ship could reach 339 metres, comparable to the largest US Navy carriers.

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Jim Fanell, a retired US Navy captain and former US Pacific Fleet intelligence chief, told the news outlet that the scale and speed of work at Dalian made him more convinced of a launch next year. Bradley Martin, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, also agreed it was feasible, noting China's experience with naval nuclear power. He warned that if integrating nuclear propulsion proves difficult, two to three years could pass between launch and operational readiness.

The Type 004 is also expected to use an electromagnetic aircraft launch system. A 2025 Pentagon report said China aims to build six more carriers by 2035, potentially giving it nine. Fanell said Dalian shows China can build large carriers at two shipyards, but he considered six operational carriers by 2035 more realistic. Hart said simultaneous construction at Dalian and Jiangnan Shipyard, where the Fujian was built, was conceivable.

James R. Holmes of the US Naval War College told SCMP that a nine-carrier fleet was feasible and would allow operations in the western Pacific and beyond. Martin said Chinese carriers would likely generate fewer aircraft missions than US ones and be vulnerable in heavily contested waters, but would give Beijing options in conflicts worldwide.