&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "Bangladesh election 2026: These 3 factors could change the game this year")
For the first time after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, Bangladesh is all set to go to polls for its new prime minister on Thursday (Feb 12). One thing that's new in this election is that it's not a battle just for power. This election will also decide the fate of the July Charter, a proposal that seeks to alter the Constitution in letter and spirit. The Tarique Rahman-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was reported as the frontrunner ahead of the polls. But Shafiqur Rahman-led Jamaat-e-Islami also has good chances of changing the game.
This poll is also being held without Sheikh Hasina's banned Awami League. As per multiple reports, the party still holds 30-40 per cent of the support. Amid all the tensions, 3 major factors can flip the script of the Bangladesh poll.
Voters undecided
There are two sections of voters in this poll: One is the 30-40 per cent of Bangladeshis who are supporters of Awami League, and the other is the larger section, which is undecided. In a survey of November 2025 by the International Republican Institute (IRI), it was seen that 7 per cent of the voters were undecided and 11 per cent declined to reveal their plans for voting. Meanwhile, as per a December 2025 nationwide survey published by Prothom Alo in January, around 17 per cent of voters said they were not sure who they would vote for as their next PM.
Moreover, an August 2025 survey by Dhaka-based think tank Brac Institute of Governance and Development said that 48.5 per cent of respondents said they were undecided about their choice.
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"Opinion polls suggest the BNP has an edge, but we must remember that a significant portion of voters are still undecided," Parvez Karim Abbasi, executive director at Dhaka's Centre for Governance Studies, told news agency Reuters.
Low voter turnout can affect parties differently
Ahead of the election, it was reported that there was a sudden increase in the number of people who were travelling back home to Bangladesh. This indicated that the voter turnout could be much higher. But the Election Commission's mock drills showed voters taking nearly 10 times longer at booths. If the same thing happened on the polling day, there could be frustration among voters over slow-moving lines.
A report by the Bangladesh Institute of Democracy and Development (BIDD) noted that voters will cast their votes for both the election and the referendum, and hence, the process of voting could be longer than usual.
Women and elderly voters
One key factor that could change the result of the election is the women voters and senior citizens. Since the process of voting is expected to take longer than usual, the women voters and elderly voters could possibly walk away without casting their votes.
