Routine jobs in retail, healthcare, education most at risk from gen-AI: Goldman Sachs

Routine and repetitive jobs across financial services, retail trade, healthcare and education are expected to face the highest disruption from generative artificial intelligence (Gen-AI). Meanwhile, professionals with skills in AI sectors are more likely to have a greater advantage in work in these sectors rather than replace them, according to a Goldman Sachs report.

The report indicated that the impact of Gen-AI will differ across occupations depending on the complexity of the task, with lower-difficulty and same activities continuing to have a higher likelihood of automation. It stated, "Skilled-service sectors appear better placed for AI complementarity, while routine service sectors face higher substitution risk note where is tech services sector".

In the financial services sector, the report also confirmed that Gen-AI can enhance the roles of analysts by automating some basic modelling work, classified as difficulty level 3. However, it is more expected to completely replace routine back-office activities, including basic compliance checks, which fall under difficulty level 1. The report also confirmed that financial services consist of nearly 6 per cent of total employment, excluding agriculture.

The report categorises tasks by complexity level, where lower levels represent routine, repetitive work that's more vulnerable to Gen-AI automation, while higher levels reflect more sophisticated tasks that AI is likely to support rather than take over entirely.

Self-checkout technology

As a result, level 1 tasks carry the greatest risk of being replaced, while tasks at higher difficulty levels are expected to continue relying heavily on human input, with AI serving as a supporting tool. Within retail trade, Gen-AI is anticipated to assist sales personnel with functions like inventory management, spanning difficulty levels 2 through 4, while simultaneously replacing cashier positions through self-checkout technology, a level 1 task already being adopted in some settings. The report notes that retail trade makes up roughly 20 per cent of total non-agricultural employment, making it one of the workforce's largest sectors.

Regarding the healthcare sector, Goldman Sachs suggests Gen-AI is more likely to support doctors in diagnostics and treatment planning, putting in a level 6, rather than replacing them. However, more routine administrative work like scheduling appointments (level 2) faces a higher chance of automation. Healthcare represents about 3 per cent of non-agricultural employment.

In education, the report indicates Gen-AI can enhance tutoring through personalised learning tools, covering difficulty levels 3 and 4. Conversely, repetitive tasks like grading standardised assessments or multiple-choice tests (level 1) are more susceptible to automation. Education accounts for approximately 6 per cent of total non-agricultural employment.