Europe's heatwaves threaten to push 127 million into poverty by 2100, study finds

Europe is in the grips of a heatwave, with temperatures climbing to almost 41 degrees Celsius in some parts. France experienced its hottest day ever since records started in 1947, with more than half the country under a red heat alert. Spain reached its highest daily average since 1950, and UK is also witnessing record heat for June. The historic and deadly heatwave across Western and Central Europe is being driven by a powerful meteorological phenomenon known as an "Omega Block". It is a weather pattern which creates a massive, stationary heat dome with intensely hot air trapped over the continent.

A new study has found that the economic effects of extreme heat combined with drought are huge and a major trigger for the rise of poverty. An analysis by Climate Analytics shows average household incomes drop by almost 3 per cent across Europe due to heat-and-drought events. The regions hit hardest witness an even bigger reduction. The study reveals that the rising global temperatures will lead to income inequality and increase the risk of poverty for millions of people. The researcher focuses specifically on Europe, although a similar impact is expected globally, especially in the most vulnerable countries. It was published in Global Environmental Change as part of the ACCREU project.

Also Read: UK records its hottest June day, beating 1957 and 1976 highs; WHO warns of risk to lives

Global warming and climate change

Global temperatures are rising, and an increase of 2.7°C by 2100 will cause the average European household income to fall by 27 per cent. If humans are able to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as per the Paris Agreement commitment, it would fall to 7 per cent. In the former scenario, 127 million in Europe will be at risk of poverty, with the figure dropping to 60 million in a 1.5 degrees Celsius world.

Combined effects of heatwave and droughts much larger

Lead author of the study, Jessie Schleypen, says that the heatwave has affected “people’s health, livelihoods and ability to work.” The Senior Climate Change and Development Economist at Climate Analytics adds, “Where extreme heat coincides with drought, the damage can be much greater." The compound events "amplify economic losses experienced directly by European households, and they will become more frequent as global warming increases.”

Reduction in household income due to heatwave and droughts

The study analyses data from 2004 to 2022 and finds that heatwaves and droughts individually have a lesser impact than when they occur together. “On average, a heatwave in Europe will reduce household incomes by 0.7% and droughts by 1.8%. When they occur together – particularly in drought-stricken regions – the average income loss rises to nearly 3%,” the study states. The conditions worsen workers' health, reducing labour productivity and affecting crops, which causes a dip in food production. Critical services linked to water, such as transport and energy generation, also take a massive hit.

The poorest will be at the greatest loss due to the economic inequalities caused by the events. “The poorest 20% will be affected the most, with incomes dropping 2% more than the rest of the population (4% vs 1.1-1.8%), further widening income inequality,” Schleypen says. In a 2.7 degrees Celsius world, Greece, Spain, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus will likely be among the most affected countries.