Beneath the Pacific Ocean, 480 kilometres (300 miles) off the coast of Oregon, Axial Seamount, the most active volcano in the Northeast Pacific, is showing signs of an impending eruption.
Rising magma beneath this submerged peak has caused the volcano to swell, hinting at significant volcanic activity before the end of 2025 as per the research published in Nature.
"Axial is the most active volcano in the Northeast Pacific, which maybe some people don't know because it's hidden under the ocean," said volcanologist Bill Chadwick during a podcast by Oregon Public Broadcasting.
Monitoring for safer predictions
While the underwater eruption poses no direct threat to humans, studying Axial Seamount provides valuable insights for predicting more dangerous volcanic events. This volcano has erupted three times in the last 30 years — in 1998, 2011, and 2015 — with its current swelling matching pre-eruption levels from the past.
The inflation is caused by magma rising and pressing against the mountain’s surface. Recent seismic studies have identified multiple magma reservoirs under the volcano, sitting beneath layers of basalt and gabbro, linked to eruptive fissures on the seafloor.
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Axial Seamount lies along the boundary where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate meets the Pacific plate, an area where new seafloor forms due to plate movements.
The study of Axial Seamounts could aid in understanding volcanoes worldwide. "We're hoping the lessons we learn here can be applied to volcanoes worldwide," said Chadwick.
How the eruption will unfold
The volcano, a shield structure formed from thin lava, is expected to release magma by cracking open the surface, creating new seafloor rather than causing an explosive event. This minimises the likelihood of dramatic consequences, such as tsunamis.
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Researchers have observed hundreds of daily earthquakes near Axial Seamount, with seismic activity steadily increasing over the past six months. "It can't do this forever," noted Chadwick and his colleague Scott Nooner, a geophysicist from the University of North Carolina, in a blog post.