Opinion: A jailed Khaleda Zia is more popular than a free one

Dhaka, Bangladesh

A jailed Khaleda Zia is more popular than a free one. The ruling party may have made a strategic mistake by sending the former prime minister and leader of the country's largest opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party to jail.

Bangladesh is less than a year away from the 11th parliamentary elections. Analysts in Bangladesh say that between the two Begums, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is more politically sound than her nemesis Khaleda Zia but Zia's only card to return to power is sympathy. 

The ruling party may have just given that to her by implicating her on charges of embezzling charity funds of more than 20 million Bangladeshi takas (USD 252,000).

Subsequently, a special court in Dhaka on February 8 sent Zia to jail for five years. Five others including her son Tarique Rahman have been given 10 years jail terms in the same case.

BNP leaders say the charges are false and politically motivated to restrain her from contesting in the elections. The BNP and its alliances have engaged in movements across the country demanding the release of the former prime minister. 

BNP's boycott of the 2014 elections has put the party in an existential crisis after the government sent activists and senior leaders of the party to jail on charges of political violence. Subsequently, some of the leaders resigned from the party while others have failed to stir a political campaign or movement in fear of arrests. 

The rightwing party founded by General Ziaur Rahman, husband of Khaleda Zia, will be led by their son Tarique Rahman, who has been staying in London to avoid arrest in Dhaka.

For BNP the upcoming elections will be crucial for its existence but the ruling party will make sure that it has a clear passage to retain the government. 

In 2014 the international community criticised the Awami League for holding a controversial election without the participation of key opposition. There was speculation that an interim election was inevitable. But Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina's government proved those speculations wrong.

This time it has become much stronger. The government has strengthened its relationship with both China and India - the two influential economies in South Asia - through economic and bilateral cooperation. 

The Awami League has secured Chinese financial assistance of $24 billion in October 2016, becoming the largest financial contributor to Bangladesh. Within its two consecutive tenure since 2008, the party has also secured three lines of credits from India worth $8 billion including a defence cooperation deal worth $500 million.

All of these would have a bearing in the coming elections and while the Awami League really has courted the ball all the way, the opposition may just have found a cue.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL).