India's Indus Waters Treaty move will become an issue in Pakistan's politics as PTI plans anti-budget protest. Here's how

Pakistan is bracing for a nationwide protest by the opposition PTI against the budget, but the government is likely to blame India for the economic woes. The water shortage that had led to crop production failure is being blamed partially on India putting in abeyance the Indus Waters Treaty in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam attack. Here is a look at the complex political developments unfolding in the country.

Imran Khan's party announces a protest against the budget

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan is angered by the postponement of his bail petition. Through his sisters, the jailed leader has called for a nationwide protest against the budget announced on Wednesday.

PTI rejected the 2025–26 budget, alleging it was dictated by the IMF and favours the elite while burdening the poor.

Calling the PML-N government of Shehbaz Sharif ‘illegitimate’, PTI leaders like Gohar Ali Khan and Omar Ayub said it lacked the mandate to present the budget.

They criticised heavy defence spending allocated in the budget, at the expense of social welfare. They slammed the lack of any relief for the salaried class.

PTI threatened protests if opposition voices were suppressed in Parliament. The party argued that rising debt and fiscal tightening would worsen poverty and economic instability.

How India's Indus Waters Treaty move will become an issue in Pakistan's politics

However, as if to build a narrative ahead of the budget, the government had blamed the fall in crop production on water shortage.

The shortage will only become worse in the coming days, when the planned PTI protests take place.

India kept in abeyance its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack. This has worsened Pakistan’s water crisis, with top reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla at dead storage levels, limiting irrigation and drinking water.

Pakistan's kharif crop output, especially cotton and maize, declined by over 30 per cent and 15 per cent respectively, while wheat production fell 9 per cent. Punjab faces a 21 per cent early Kharif water shortage. Pakistan’s agriculture GDP share dropped to 23.54 per cent.

Pakistan has been appealing to India to reinstate the treaty, even as the World Bank, under whose auspices it had been signed, refused to mediate.

There is a strong likelihood that the PMN-L government will shift the blame of its poor economic performance on the water shortage caused partially by the Indus Waters Treaty move by India.

KP chief minister threatens armed protest

Amid the political tensions, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur threatened an ‘armed protest march’ to Islamabad.

The PTI leader warned that the protesters would respond to violence with violence, saying their patience has run out, frustrated by the lack of bail to Khan.

But Imran Khan’s sister Aleema dismissed this, saying the party was only planning peaceful nationwide protests, not just in the capital.

Earlier, Imran had instructed KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur to ensure PTI’s economic team is consulted on the federal budget. But the government had avoided this.

In the coming days, Pakistan will witness a political upheaval, which will start as a protest against the budget, but could spill into a larger crisis across the country.