‘Big One’ in California might defy current quake predictions and models, new study says

For years, scientists have talked about the "Big One", a massive earthquake likely to hit California in the coming years. People have wondered how big would it be and how to prepare for it. But now a recent study suggests that the fear created around the expected California quake might have been a bit too much.

The latest study goes againstprevious studies to say thatthe ‘Big One’predicted along the San Andreas fault in Southern California might not actually be as big in reality.

The findings of the study were presented at the American Geophysical Union and were reported by Live Science. If the study is proven to be true, it can potentially be game-changing, but the US Geological Survey (USGS) has already cautioned that it is too soon to incorporate the new data.

Add WION as a Preferred Source

Also Read |Sex in space? It might still be a distant possibility due to microgravity

Here’s what the study says.

‘Big One’ earthquake might not be as big as suggested earlier

The new study says that traditional earthquake models rely on data that is old and outdated, as it records ground motion from past seismic events that often have a limited timeframe. However, for this new study, the team of researchers turned to an unconventional source of data - rocks.

Rocks that are located 9.3 miles away from the San Andreas fault became the source of the new study. The cluster of five rocks which withstood seismic activity in the past 50,000 years and is situated in northern Los Angeles County, was examined for some insights on earthquakes.

Also Read |Intermittent fasting leads to healthy changes in brain and gut, says research

Lead researcher Anna Rood, a seismic hazard scientist at Imperial College London, explained that current earthquake recordings span less than 100 years, making predictions uncertain regarding the potential impact of rare, large earthquakes.

The study’s findings made a big claim that ground shaking during the anticipated Big One earthquake could be up to 65 per cent less intense than current hazard models suggest. The result of the study is quite significant and can be of immense importance in disaster management if proven true.

Until then, it is better to take the findings of the study with a pinch of salt as it has been three centuries since the last earthquakes hit the southern San Andreas Fault.

Also Read |Japan's probe enters lunar orbit, what happens now?

Geophysicist Mark Peterson from USGS said that it’s too early to incorporate the findings into undated hazard maps. Hazard maps play a pivotal role in setting building codes, disaster preparation plans and determining earthquake insurance premiums. If the new data is added to future map updates, it could have far-fetched implications for these decisions, as per Rood.

The research team, however, plans to continue their study of precarious rocks around the world with the aim of improving current data on earthquakes.

(With inputs from agencies)