“It’s my political death they want,” Marine Le Pen declared in November. Few took her words seriously then, but on Monday, her prediction became reality.

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A Paris court delivered a bombshell ruling, barring Le Pen from running for public office for five years, sentencing her to four years in prison, and imposing a €100,000 fine. 

The decision, which takes immediate effect despite her appeal, removes the far-right leader from the 2027 French presidential race and changes the country’s political landscape.

For months, Le Pen had insisted that the judiciary would not dare to impose an immediate political ban even if she was convicted of embezzling EU funds. She was wrong.

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A blow to Le Pen, a gift to her party?

As leader of the National Rally (RN), Le Pen was seen as the frontrunner for the 2027 election, with polls placing her 10 points ahead of her nearest rival. She had a clear path to becoming France’s first female president. That path is now blocked.

Yet, far from destroying RN, the ruling may ironically strengthen the far right. Le Pen and her supporters have framed it as an establishment plot to sideline her and silence their movement. The narrative of persecution plays perfectly into populist rhetoric. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN president and likely successor, has already called it the “execution” of democracy.

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Le Pen is no stranger to reinvention. She has spent over a decade trying to "detoxify" the RN, distancing it from its openly racist past under her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. In 2015, she expelled him from the party he founded.

By softening its image, she broadened RN’s appeal, attracting working-class and rural voters. Now, her downfall could finally sever the party from the Le Pen name—once its greatest asset but also its heaviest burden.

A martyr for the far right

For RN voters, the ruling confirms what they have long believed: The system is rigged against them. Le Pen is already portraying herself as a victim of the establishment, echoing the rhetoric of Donald Trump, who similarly claims political persecution through the courts.

Elon Musk said the same, warning that the decision would “backfire” and accusing the “radical left” of manipulating the legal system to jail opponents. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also denounced the ruling, saying European democracies were “violating democratic norms.”

The conviction could charge RN supporters rather than weaken them.

Many of them do not see Le Pen’s financial misconduct as any worse than the corruption scandals that have swarmed France’s mainstream parties. Instead, her punishment is likely to be worn as a badge of honour, a symbol that she alone is standing up to the establishment.

What happens next?

Le Pen has appealed, meaning there is a small chance her ban could be overturned or reduced. If an appeal ruling arrives by early 2026 and reverses the court’s decision, she could still run. But that scenario remains unlikely.

More immediately, RN is expected to gain support in the wake of this ruling. The idea that Le Pen has been politically "assassinated" will fuel outrage and strengthen her movement. For now, the question is no longer whether Le Pen will be a candidate in 2027 but who will replace her as the face of the far right.

The ruling has effectively launched the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron, who is term-limited. Le Pen was widely expected to make the second round of the 2027 election, with the real question being who would face her in the final vote. Now, the equation has changed.

While some believe her political career is over, Le Pen has been written off before. The far right in France is not going away. If anything, this ruling may accelerate its transformation and its rise to power.