Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan: Pakistan’s twin crises that could spell doom in a war with India

The relentless attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and the growing insurgency in Balochistan are glaring signs of Pakistan’s internal chaos. For Indian readers, these twin crises reveal why Pakistan is dangerously vulnerable and how it could face a catastrophic setback if a war erupts with India. While India stands united and robust under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, Pakistan’s crumbling stability in KP and Balochistan could be its undoing, exposing its weaknesses on multiple fronts.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a rugged province bordering Afghanistan, is a battlefield where the TTP, a terrorist group bent on overthrowing Pakistan’s government, unleashes deadly attacks. With bombings and shootings targeting soldiers, police, and civilians, the TTP killed over 500 people in KP in 2024 alone. The Pakistani army’s efforts to crush them have failed, and in some areas, the TTP runs its own courts and patrols roads, acting like a shadow government. This loss of control is a stark warning: Pakistan cannot secure its own territory, a critical flaw in any potential conflict.

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, adds another layer of trouble. Here, Baloch separatists, who want independence, have stepped up their attacks on Pakistani forces and infrastructure. Groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) target military outposts, gas pipelines, and even Chinese projects like the Gwadar port, part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In 2024, dozens of attacks in Balochistan killed hundreds, showing the insurgency’s growing strength. The Baloch people feel neglected, with their province’s resources exploited while locals remain poor. This fuels their rebellion, tying down Pakistan’s army in a second internal conflict.

Imagine a war between India and Pakistan, as nearly happened in 2019 after the Pulwama attack. India, with its military and strong economy, is ready to respond decisively if Pakistan-based terrorists strike again in Kashmir. But Pakistan faces a nightmare scenario. Their army is already stretched thin, fighting the TTP in KP and separatists in Balochistan. In a war, they would have to battle India’s formidable forces on nine eastern borders while quelling insurgencies at home. This three-front challenge—India, KP, and Balochistan—could overwhelm Pakistan’s military, leaving them exposed and outmatched.

The TTP and Baloch insurgencies are bleeding Pakistan’s economy, which is already on life support with soaring inflation and a devalued rupee. Fighting in KP and Balochistan has cost billions since 2001, diverting funds from schools, hospitals, and roads. Balochistan’s attacks on CPEC projects also scare off foreign investors, further choking Pakistan’s growth. In a war, Pakistan would struggle to fund a prolonged conflict, while India’s thriving economy and hefty military budget give us a clear edge to sustain our defence.

The Afghan connection makes KP’s crisis even worse. The TTP gets support from the Taliban in Afghanistan, who provide safe havens across the border. Since the US withdrawal in 2021, the Taliban’s control has emboldened the TTP, allowing them to launch cross-border attacks. Balochistan, too, faces border issues, with some Baloch fighters reportedly finding refuge in Afghanistan or Iran. In a war, Pakistan would need to secure its volatile western borders with Afghanistan and Iran while facing India in the east, splitting their forces and diluting their strength. India, free from such internal rebellions, can focus entirely on the fight, giving us a strategic advantage.

Politically, both provinces are powder kegs. KP is a stronghold of Imran Khan’s party, which is locked in a bitter feud with Pakistan’s military and government. The TTP’s attacks fuel local anger, risking protests that could destabilise the region further. In Balochistan, the separatist movement has deepened distrust in the government, with many locals viewing the army as an occupying force. If war breaks out, these political fractures could erupt into widespread unrest, shattering Pakistan’s unity. India, with its stable government and united populace, faces no such internal strife, allowing us to stand firm and resolute.

The crises in KP and Balochistan raise a thought-provoking question: can Pakistan survive a war with India when it’s already fighting itself? The TTP’s reign of terror and Balochistan’s rebellion expose a nation divided and weakened, struggling to hold together. These regions are not just security threats—they are symptoms of deeper failures in governance, economic neglect, and military overreach. Pakistan’s dream of challenging India militarily ignores the cracks within its own foundation. A war would not just test their army but could unravel their nation, as insurgents exploit the chaos to push their agendas.

India, by contrast, shines as a beacon of strength. Our military is modernising, our economy is booming, and our people are united behind a vision of progress. If Pakistan provokes us, the chaos in KP and Balochistan could be the weight that drags them down, while India’s resilience ensures we emerge stronger. Pakistan’s leaders must reflect on this harsh reality: their internal wars could cost them everything in a conflict with India.

Let us pray for peace, but if war comes, India’s unity and power will prevail, while Pakistan’s twin crises in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan could lead to their downfall.