India’s SCO Presidency: Navigating geostrategic challenges for regional stability

It was announced early this week that the 22nd Summit of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Summit) Council of heads of State will be held in virtual mode. Putin, Xi and Sharif will be attending the summit, to be chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India has already invited other leaders of all the SCO States - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to attend the summit. Being the Chair, India has already hosted a series of more than 134 meetings, including 14 ministerial-level meetings setting the stage for the heads of state summit to take place.

Earlier the defence ministers' meeting was also summed up by discussing regional peace and security among member countries and promoting an effective multilateral setting stage. Keeping in view the joint chairmanship of India in two major multilateral forums - G20 and SCO this year, the opportune moment for India to use its diplomatic capital to ensure peace and stability in the region cannot be ignored, vis-a-vis China and Russia’s membership in both these forums.

But there are some challenges that New Delhi has to navigate through while dealing with its positionality in SCO, which is a ‘strange beast’ indeed.

India’s growth within SCO from an observer to a full member in the Asthana Summit, 2017 reinforces the role India can play within the bloc. India from its very inception has supported and crystallised the core agenda of SCO on terrorism and has shared its commitment to maintaining regional connectivity, territorial integrity, and sovereignty.

SCO has been a useful platform with respect to being a forum to discuss matters on security, defence, terrorism, drug trade, etc, and to provide democratic solutions to restore peace and economic security in conflict-stricken regions.

But it has to be borne in mind that the very conception of SCO, was a reaction to the growing American dominance in Central Asian politics after the end of the Cold War. Moscow and Beijing largely wanted to preserve the economic and geopolitical opportunities in Central Asia and created SCO as an anti-thesis of NATO in a post-Soviet global order.

India’s entry within the fold remains largely strategic, considering the fluctuating relationship it had with Washington in the early 2000s. This was also the time when regional alternatives like BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) were conceptualised, as a significant political balance between Russia and China, for India’s regional stability. In 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi coined the acronym SECURE in Qingdao, China which now is the very theme of its SCO chairmanship reflecting the concerns of contemporary regional security.

This current summit has a crucial timing, with respect to global security challenges like the Russia-Ukraine war, larger obstacles on energy security and the latest mutiny against Moscow by the Wagner Private Military Company. Russia, being an aggressor in the Eurasian conflict has faced restrictions on its invitation status in many multilateral forums, right after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant against Putin alleged of committing war crimes. Under this context, SCO will be a certain place, where Putin will have a considerable diplomatic place to refurbish his “strongman” image which has lately faced a hit with the mercenary coup against him, under the leadership of former ally Yevgeny Prigozhin.

India’s footprint in SCO has been aligned with its pragmatic positionality with respect to Russia vis -a vis China. Considering that Sino-India relations have been abnormal with increasing unpredictability of Chinese forces along the LAC in the last couple of months, this is a good reason to navigate the SCO summit with sustainable strategies to topple the China-Pakistan axis and shape the agenda on terrorism and extremism, and New Delhi’s closeness with Russia at the moment will be key to that agenda shaping.

China has pursued its ambitions through SCO very actively, with its highly marketed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI ) to situate itself very strategically within Central Asia and be present in the transaction point of Asia and Europe. This has been an Indian concern about its sovereignty across Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and has been vehemently finding an alternative through the ambitious International North South Corridor Project linking the Baltic Sea with western Indian ports in the Arabian Sea.

Pakistan has been obstructing India’s interests with its refusal to allow energy connectivity projects likeThe Turkmenistan -Afghanistan -Pakistan -India (TAPI ) Pipeline to go through its region. New Delhi can very well negotiate through SCO, the expansion of the INSTC, including the Chabahar Port and making a growing influence in the region. India , therefore, needs to leverage its relationship currently with Russia and other CAR countries to effectively steer the China-Pakistan axis and position its diplomatic clout for the larger stability of the highly contested Eurasian region.

India has currently proposed the New Delhi declaration and four other joint statements on issues like de-radicalisation in the region, promotion of millets and sustainable development lifestyles, addressing climate change and digital transformation.

India in order to leverage its chairmanship in SCO and push the above mentioned priorities, will have to deal with the growing closeness of Russia and China and the ever present China-Pakistan axis, which will have a significant impact on India’s potential to shape the SCO agenda for the future.

The SCO , just like other multilateral forums, is facing a power change with global south leaderships and challenging the larger balance of power. India has crucial interests in keeping the Eurasian region stable and its evolving positionality within SCO will be best suited to continue its efforts in alignment with the SCO bedrock i.e strengthening and promoting the region’s security prospects.

In an era of multilateralism, SCO can be effectively used as a unique forum to meet these common challenges and address larger geopolitical concerns. India’s presidency thus remains a critical moment to navigate through these complex geostrategic challenges and produce tangible results.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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