The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military systems is reshaping the global strategic landscape, and nowhere is this transformation more consequential than in South Asia, where India and Pakistan’s longstanding rivalry persists. As India accelerates its AI-driven defence modernisation, questions arise about whether this technological edge will be used to bolster deterrence against Pakistan or risk destabilising an already fragile balance. The answer lies in India’s strategic priorities, the evolving nature of warfare, and the delicate dance of deterrence in a nuclear-armed region.

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India’s commitment to AI in defence is unmistakable. The establishment of the Defence Artificial Intelligence Council, chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and the Military AI Project Agency with a $13.2 million annual budget signal a robust push toward AI-enhanced capabilities. From autonomous drones to AI-powered surveillance systems along the Line of Control (LoC), India is developing tools to improve decision-making, precision warfare, and cybersecurity. The deployment of 140 AI-based surveillance systems, equipped with high-resolution cameras and radar feeds, underscores India’s focus on real-time situational awareness—a critical asset in countering Pakistan’s asymmetric tactics, such as cross-border militancy.

Pakistan, while lagging in AI development, is not standing still. The National Centre for Artificial Intelligence (NCAI), established in 2018, and the Pakistan Air Force’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC) are advancing AI applications in electronic warfare and drone technology, such as the Burraq drone. Pakistan’s collaboration with China, a global leader in AI militarisation, further amplifies its potential to narrow the technological gap. However, resource constraints and reliance on external partners limit Pakistan’s ability to match India’s scale and pace.

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For India, AI offers a double-edged sword in its deterrence strategy. On one hand, superior AI capabilities could strengthen conventional deterrence by enhancing India’s ability to detect and neutralise threats swiftly. AI-driven systems, such as autonomous combat vehicles or swarm drones, could enable precise, surgical strikes—similar to those in 2016 and 2019—while minimising escalation risks. By projecting technological dominance, India could dissuade Pakistan from provocative actions, reinforcing a deterrence-by-denial posture. Moreover, AI’s role in cybersecurity, as demonstrated by India’s countermeasures against Pakistani cyberattacks post-Pahalgam, could protect critical infrastructure, further solidifying India’s strategic edge.

On the other hand, the militarisation of AI risks destabilising deterrence dynamics. Pakistan perceives India’s AI advancements as a threat to its strategic calculus, particularly its nuclear deterrence. AI’s ability to process vast data and target mobile nuclear assets could lower the nuclear threshold in a crisis, as Pakistan might fear a preemptive strike. The speed of AI-driven decision-making, while efficient, could also lead to miscalculations, especially in the fog of frequent LoC skirmishes. Pakistan’s response—a mix of psychological warfare, missile tests, and cyber operations—suggests it views India’s AI push as a challenge to the regional balance of power.

The ethical and operational risks of AI further complicate India’s deterrence strategy. Fully autonomous weapons, or Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), raise concerns about unintended escalations, as highlighted by former Indian Army Chief Gen. M.M. Naravane. Biases in AI algorithms, if not addressed, could lead to catastrophic errors in targeting or intelligence analysis. The absence of global regulations on military AI exacerbates these risks, leaving India and Pakistan to navigate uncharted territory without clear norms.

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So, will India opt to deter Pakistan through AI-embedded warfare? The evidence suggests a cautious yes. India’s investments indicate a strategic intent to leverage AI for conventional superiority, aiming to deter Pakistan’s low-intensity provocations while avoiding nuclear escalation. However, India must tread carefully. Overreliance on AI could provoke Pakistan into compensatory actions, such as deeper alignment with China or accelerated nuclear modernisation, eroding strategic stability. The 2025 Pahalgam attack and subsequent tensions underscore how quickly mistrust can spiral, with both nations resorting to cyberattacks and diplomatic brinkmanship.

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To maximise deterrence while minimising risks, India should pair its AI advancements with confidence-building measures (CBMs). Bilateral AI incident reporting centres, as proposed by some analysts, could reduce misperceptions. Track-II diplomacy and dedicated communication channels for AI-related matters could foster transparency, mitigating the trust deficit that fuels escalation. India should also advocate for regional AI arms control discussions, drawing on its global diplomatic clout to set norms that constrain destabilising applications.

In the end, AI-embedded warfare offers India a powerful tool to deter Pakistan, but it is not a silver bullet. Strategic restraint, coupled with technological prowess, will determine whether India can strengthen deterrence without tipping South Asia into a new era of instability. The stakes—regional peace, nuclear stability, and human lives—could not be higher.


(Girish Linganna, the author of this article, is an award-winning Science Writer and a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: [email protected])

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)