Trump and the Republican Party – a relationship under stress

After eight years as unchallenged leader of the Republican Party, former president Donald Trump is running into opposition from prominent fellow Republicans and former allies who think a third Trump run at the presidency would damage the party.

Trump announced his candidature on November 15, a full 724 days before the 2024 elections. The weekend after, a bevy of high-profile Republicans took the opportunity of an annual meeting of Jewish Republicans to blame Trump, directly or implicitly, for the party’s poor showing in November’s mid-term elections.

The Republican establishment’s discontent with Trump, who had backed a slew of losing candidates, was put in sharp focus even before all the results were in. “Trump is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser,” said a headline in the Wall Street Journal, part of a media empire which had played a leading role in helping Trump win the presidency.

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Despite predictions of a sweeping victory in the race for 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the party eked out a wafer-thin majority in the House and failed to dislodge the Democrats from their narrow control of the Senate.

As analysts on both sides of America’s deep political divide saw it, conditions for a “red tide” (red is the Republican colour) were ripe: the Democrats’ leader, Joe Biden, is not popular and Americans are angry over high prices for food and petrol spurred by the steepest inflation in decades.

Therefore, Republican candidates campaigned on kitchen-table issues. The Democrats’ main topics: threats to democracy as highlighted by the January 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol in Washington, a Supreme Court decision to overrule a constitutional right for women to have an abortion, and the insistence by Trump and his followers that the 2020 elections were stolen from him.

Almost without exception, Trump-backed candidates who campaigned on his stolen election theme lost across the country in contests for House seats, the Senate, and governorships.

Dismay with that outcome was obvious by the reaction of prominent figures including those attending the Jewish Republican meeting. There were several who are considering their presidential odds for 2024 and their chances of beating Trump for the nomination.

High on the list of almost a dozen of possible contenders: Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who scored an impressive 19-per cent win even in a part of his state, Miami-Dade, that has been a Democratic stronghold for decades. Also on hand were former members of his administration – former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, former vice president Mike Pence and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley.

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Pompeo succinctly summarised the sentiment of much of the Republican establishment: “Personality, celebrity just aren’t going to get it done.” Maryland governor Larry Hogan was just as scathing: “Excuses, lies and toxic politics will not win elections.” Pence remarked he thought the party would have “better choices in the future.”

But being discontented and critical of Trump is one thing; beating him for the party’s nomination is another. The way the Republican nomination process works gives Trump an inherent advantage. He has a solid bloc of followers who revere him with a cult-like devotion no other contender could match.

Many of the primaries and caucuses in the country’s states operate on a winner-takes-all system under which the contestant with the most votes wins even if that is less than a majority. That means if Trump retained the support of what he calls his base – estimated at between 30 and 40 percent – and there are several opponents, he would almost certainly win.

So what about Trump’s chances of winning the general elections if he emerged as the Republican candidate? Or the chances of a Trump-Biden rematch? Trump would be 78 in the 2024 campaign season, Biden 82. Polls indicate there is an appetite for younger leaders at the top.

While the Republican nomination procedures give Trump an edge, his legal problems do not. Political analysts speculate that a key reason for Trump’s candidature announcement – unusually early even in the country with the world’s longest election campaigns – was aimed at shielding him from an array of lawsuits and investigations.

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There are cases pending in Florida, Georgia, Washington DC and New York related to the assault on the Capitol, his handling of top-secret documents taken from the White House, interference in the 2020 elections, and financial wrongdoing including tax dodging by his New York-based company.

But the legal clouds hanging over candidate Trump are unlikely to impress his base. Trump has been accused of lying and hyperbole through much of his adult life and according to the Washington Post, he made 30,537 false or misleading claims over his four years in office.

But there is one statement that those arguing over the possibility of a Trump nomination and possible return to the Oval Office should take seriously. On January 24, 2016, he told a campaign rally: “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”

He is as confident of his base now as he was then. In other words: Trump may be down but he is not out.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)