In China, the tiger gives way to a rabbit

China is getting ready to greet the Year of the Rabbit, as the Year of the Tiger ends on January 21. This celestial change of guardmay be a fitting metaphor for the changes that have been happening on the ground as well.

In October, when Xi Jinping was elected as the party head for an unprecedented third term, the mood in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seemed to be one of complete control of the situation. In his report to the party Congress, Xi hailed the implementation of the Zero Covid policy, saying it had “achieved significant positive results”.

When Xi unveiled the Standing Committee of the CCP politburo, the group which is to steer China in the coming years and is packed with his loyalists, it was seen as a complete triumph for the strongman, but very few foresaw a twist in the tail, as the Year of the Tiger drew to a close.

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An organic countrywide protest against the Covid restrictions in November took even seasoned China watchers by surprise, as it was virtually unheard of in China. The spread of the Omicron variant of the Covid virus saw China’s lockdown mechanism failing to arrest the number of infections, and soon it all became chaotic as Beijing suddenly pulled the plug on its Zero Covid policy, which was till then seen as Xi’s signature policy.

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Overnight, official statements changed and the infections were characterised as mild illness and testing centres that had been in place in almost every city were dismantled. Armies of people in hazmat suits vanished overnight. It took almost three weeks before Xi himself commented on the new changed policy, even as authorities at the local level grappled with the new situation. The country has entered “a new phase of Covid response,” he told the nation on January 18.

The sudden lifting of all restrictions left Chinese hospitals swamped with patients as those infected could not even find a testing centre and had to rely on the nearest health facilities. As the vaccination rate among those aged over 80 was less than 60 percent, even Chinese officials were worried that over a million deaths would be caused by Covid by April. Officials then suspended reports on daily infection numbers, which prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to plead for more transparency and valid data on the disease situation.

The relentless pursuit of the Zero Covid policy also caused some serious setbacks to the Chinese economy. From a position of projected rise as the foremost economy overtaking the United States by 2030, the gap between the two top economies widened further as the Chinese economy stalled over the last three years. The Japan Centre for Economic Research said last month that China's nominal GDP is unlikely to surpass the US in the next few decades due to Beijing's strict adherence to its Zero Covid policy and other related headwinds.

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It was not just the Covid policy that underwent changes. Soon, other policies that bore Xi's signature were also getting tweaked, like his crackdown on tech giants. China's video games regulator started granting licenses to new games, which had been on hold for months, while the ride-hailing app Didi was allowed to resume new registrations. Curbs on real estate funding are being eased, and Beijing is now reportedly working on a 450 billion yuan plan to prop up the troubled sector.

Xi has touted common prosperity as a cornerstone of his government policies, and tech giants like Alibaba announced a 100 billion dollar investment to make his dream of the society sharing wealth more equitably come true. After Beijing started changing tack on its key policies, the state media also seems to have lost its penchant for trumpeting the common prosperity goal.

On the global stage, China seems to be shedding the wolf warrior diplomacy and adopting a more accommodative tone. While signaling a willingness to talk with the US on issues like climate change and global trade, Beijing has also indicated it would soon lift some of the unofficial trade bans imposed on Australian goods.

But it is foolhardy to assume that Beijing is making a U-turn in all key policies it has been pursuing until recently. Its crackdown on November protesters continues, according to Chinese social media posts, while the CCP continues to choke Hong Kong, depriving it of most of the autonomy the global financial centre had enjoyed. On the Indian border, intrusions into Indian areas continue, while its military posturing over Taiwan airspace goes on unabated.

The opaque political system of the Chinese Communist Party seldom lets the outside world know what is happening in its corridors of power, and it may be decades before any solid evidence emerges about what prompted the current changes in Chinese policies. Even some of the seasoned China watchers are now left scratching their heads about the rapid changes being rolled out by Beijing. All one can be sure of right now is that the tiger has given way to the rabbit, at least on the Chinese zodiac calendar.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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