Even without Sheikh Hasina in Dhaka, India must assert itself as Bangladesh's historic partner

In a dramatic turn of events, Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled to India on August 5, marking the end of an era in South Asian politics. Hasina, who had just won a record fifth term in January, was offered safe passage to India and is expected to seek asylum elsewhere.

This sudden departure has sent shockwaves through the region and poses significant challenges to India's strategic interests.

Sheikh Hasina's legacy

Hasina's legacy is complex and consequential. Under her leadership, Bangladesh transformed from a struggling nation to an economic powerhouse, becoming the world's second-largest garment exporter after China. Per capita income tripled in the last decade, and she was seen as a bulwark against extremism and army rule in a region plagued by instability.

In India, she was viewed as a trusted strategic partner who shared strong personal chemistry with Prime Minister Modi.

Sheikh Hasina's downfall: Muzzled Opposition, jailed rivals

The immediate trigger for Hasina's resignation was her mishandling of student protests demanding quota reforms. Instead of engaging with their concerns, her government resorted to heavy-handed tactics, including internet shutdowns, police brutality, and inflammatory rhetoric.

This approach led to widespread anger and violence, ultimately fueling the movement that forced her from power.

Looking back, Hasina's downfall can be attributed to several factors. Despite being a victim of political persecution herself, she resorted to muzzling opposition, jailing rivals, and creating a de facto one-party state. Her regime was increasingly seen as corrupt and nepotistic, with government jobs filled by party loyalists. The rise of a police state and its associated abuses alienated many citizens.

Economic challenges, including high unemployment and inflation, exacerbated by post-Covid recovery struggles, fueled discontent. Additionally, Hasina was perceived as too close to India, particularly in countering terrorism and radicalism, which some saw as compromising Bangladesh's interests.

Hasina's Bangladesh exit: View from India

For India, Hasina's exit presents multiple challenges. It represents the loss of a trusted partner in a volatile region and potentially destabilises India's eastern border, complicating security issues in the northeast. It also creates opportunities for China and Pakistan to expand their influence in Bangladesh. The coming weeks may see disruptions in bilateral connectivity and tensions in security and counter-terror cooperation. There's also a risk of increased illegal migration into India due to political and economic uncertainty in Bangladesh.

India's foreign policy establishment is understandably concerned. Prime Minister Modi has already convened high-level meetings to address the situation. However, it's crucial to remember that the fundamentals of India-Bangladesh relations remain strong. The logic of geography and shared economic interests should prevent any significant long-term deterioration in ties.

Moving forward, India must tread carefully. New Delhi should reaffirm its commitment to Dhaka's democratic process and economic development while avoiding the appearance of interference. By positioning itself as a stable, trusted partner regardless of who is in power in Dhaka, New Delhi can help ensure that this crisis becomes an opportunity for strengthening democratic institutions in Bangladesh rather than sliding into chaos.

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The coming months will be critical. How India navigates this challenge will have profound implications not just for bilateral relations, but for the stability and prosperity of the entire South Asian region.

Despite the current volatility, it is likely that the historic India-Bangladesh ties will endure, and Bangladesh will resume its political and economic progress. India must assert, both publicly and privately, that a democratic, rising India remains a trusted and historic partner in Bangladesh's journey towards power and prosperity.

(Disclaimer: The writer's views do not represent those of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)