The Capitals: Dhaka's tryst with PM Sheikh Hasina-styled democracy

For the latest tenure of Dhaka's Jatiya Sangsad, Bangladesh's supreme legislative body, while the numbers are not entirely in, the verdict is already out. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League (AL) party looks set to win the country's twelfth parliamentary polls after the conclusion of the voting process on Sunday (Jan 7).

This will be Hasina's fourth term in a row and fifth prime ministerial term in total, following a nationalelection boycotted by the principal opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and reports of voter suppression, and vote-rigging tactics by Hasina'sruling party. In boycotting elections, Hasina's party has accused the BNP of adopting fundamentalist tactics.

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Bangladesh held its 12th parliamentary election on Sunday, Jan 7, 2023 | Agencies

On the voting day, the website of a newspaper critical of the Hasina government was blocked for several hours. A prominent daily from Dhaka reported on alleged obstruction to the voting process by using indirect euphemisms: 'Three Boat supporters jailed for obstructing voters', the publication reported with the boat being the election symbol of Sheikh Hasina's Awami League (AL) Party.

WhileKazi Habibul Awal, the Chief Election Commissioner in Dhaka requested the media to highlight the purported transparency in the voting process, he ended up pointing out that he could see only Awami League's polling agents in the voting centres he visited in the Bangladesh capital. Note that a total of '28 registered parties' were in the fray with some 1,900 candidates vying for 300 seats of the Jatiya Sangsad.

Foreign observers from various capitals of the world, including New Delhi, Canberra, Oslo, and Washington DC, will report on their assessment of the credibility of the elections. But until then, a 40 per cent voter turnoutspeaks a story on its own.

Why does SheikhHasina matter for New Delhi and Beijing?

But Hasina's return to power is expectedto keep the semblance of geoeconomic stability in the region. The question of who serves from Dhaka's Prime Minister's Office has had several ambitions to play out in recent times. From New Delhi's buffer state priorities to Beijing's Belt & Road vision, as well as the strategic interests of Washington and Moscow's bid to partner with Dhaka in Bangladesh's infrastructure revamp projects.

Fifty-two years after Bangladeshcame into being following a bloodied war for independence from present-day Pakistan, the country remains at an inflection point.

Its $400 billion economygrew at 7.1 per centin 2022.

Hasina in power in Dhaka has been seen as pivotal toBangladesh's growth and stability by New Delhi and Beijing, who see heras crucial to advancing their strategic interests in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.

Since coming to power in 2009, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina'sapproach towards New Delhi and Beijing reflects a strategy to assort Bangladesh'snational interests over zero-sum strategic affairs.

While pursuing an ambitious goal to achieve developed nation status for Bangladesh by 2041, Sheikh Hasinahas strategically harnessedthe strengths of both India and China with visits to New Delhi and Beijing aimed atbalancing ties.

Dhaka is pursuing a modernisation project for Mongla port under Beijing's ambitiousBelt and Road Initiative.

New Delhi'sBangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor (BCIM) initiative too is another stride in the country'sregional connectivity goals.

File photo of Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina with her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi | Reuters

The continuity of investments by both New Delhi and Beijing depends on Hasina's return to power.

The fundamentalism in Afghanistan following the Taliban's takeover of Kabulhas already challenged New Delhi's investments in Afghanistan. While Beijing's ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has also come under attack by Pakistani fundamentalists.

Bangladesh's economic success story under Hasina has given the region a semblance of stability. Both Beijing and New Delhi, therefore, view Sheikh Hasina's return as a sign of continued stability in the region.