Pinarayi Vijayan's LDF faces defeat in Kerala Assembly election. Is it political winter for the veteran CPI-M leader?

Pinarayi Vijayan, who led the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Kerala Assembly Election 2026, is facing exit after two consecutive terms as the south Indian state's chief minister. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) leader might have contributed to how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — which was often kept away from any meaningful electoral victories in the state over alleged communal politics — improved its vote share as results and trends trickled in on Monday (May 4). Vijayan, in spite of the strong anti-incumbency, led the LDF in the election, hoping to win a third straight term. But most of his cabinet ministers who contested the elections are now losing even as the Congress-led UDF appears set to form the next government.

Pinarayi Vijayan's leadership and Kerala Assembly election results

Pinarayi Vijayan's way of functioning opened up space for the BJP in Kerala's politics, according to analysts. He is known for a strong, centralised style of leadership, which critics have called ‘Stalinist’. There is also enough anecdotal evidence that even the fellow travellers of the Left movement in the state gravitated towards the BJP in the last decade, due to their specific discomfort with Vijayan's leadership.
Malayalis traditionally favoured alternating five years of the LDF and five for the UDF. But the growth of the BJP in the past decade, since Narendra Modi became Indian prime minister, created space for a third alternative. It might take years for the BJP to become a significant, let alone majority, player in Kerala. But its historical best performance this year indicates the opening of the doors.

From popularity to electoral drubbing: Pinarayi Vijayan is the target of anti-incumbency sentiment against the LDF government

Pinarayi Vijayan, born on May 24, 1945, is an old-school communist who led a changing Kerala. He reportedly sidelined key leaders of the party, including the late veteran Achuthanandan and the rising star of the LDF government during the COVID pandemic, K. K. Shailaja.

Vijayan, Kerala's 12th chief minister since May 25, 2016, became the first-ever in the state to win a re-election for a consecutive second term in 2021. The victory was hailed as significant, as it broke the state's long-standing alternating power pattern between the LDF and the Congress-led UDF.

Vijayan made this possible by riding on the popularity achieved over how the government handled the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, among other things.
During both terms, Vijayan's government focused on disaster management, particularly the 2018 floods and the COVID-19 response. For his supporters, Vijayan's government is known for its focus on social welfare, infrastructure development, and public health initiatives.
But in the last five years, many common voters were frustrated with common issues like unemployment and the rising cost of living.

Pinarayi Vijayan's decades-long political career

Vijayan, who entered politics through student activism at Government Brennen College in Thalassery, joined the CPI(M) in 1964. Since becoming a member of the district committee at age 24 and later the district secretariat, Vijayan worked his way up in the party ranks in Kannur district.
He became a lawmaker in 1970, having been elected to the Kerala Legislative Assembly from the Koothuparambu constituency. He was elected from the same seat in 1977 and 1991. In 1996, he won from Payyannur. Vijayan was elected from the Dharmadam constituency in 2016 and 2021.
During the 1975–77 Emergency imposed by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi of the Congress party, Vijayan was arrested for protests and reportedly faced police brutality.
As the Minister of Electricity and Cooperation in the 1996–98 EK Nayanar government, Vijayan is credited with significant improvements in power generation and distribution, but at the same time faced allegations of corruption in what is known as the Lavalin case.

Is Vijayan looking at political winter after Kerala Assembly election results?

At the time of writing this, it is not clear if Vijayan, turning 81 this month, will choose to be the Leader of the Opposition, a role he never held (he transitioned directly from state party secretary to chief minister). Will he go back to being the party secretary? Or will he stand aside to pave the way for younger leaders to take the party back to another victory in the next election?
Vijayan remains a key national figure in the CPI(M) as a member of the Politburo, the party's highest decision-making body, since 2002. Vijayan's leadership qualities were fully on display whenever the CPI(M) was in the opposition. He was Kerala State Secretary of the CPI(M) from 1998 to 2015, one of the longest such stints, during which he strengthened the party structures. There is no retirement age in politics. It may be too early to write off the leader.