Monsoon 2026: Why India watches the rain so closely | WION Decodes

While many simply associate monsoon in India with rain and weather, it plays a much larger role. From livelihoods to the economy, the monsoon is the lifeline for the people of India. The southwest monsoon, which accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall, is monitored by millions of Indians. As weather patterns become increasingly unpredictable amid concerns of climate change and El Nino, understanding how rains impact India has become even more necessary.

Why is monsoon important for India?

The southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall. This seasonal rainfall supports the agriculture sector of the nation. According to government data, nearly 64 per cent of Indians rely on agriculture for their livelihood. Yet only around 55 per cent of the country’s net sown area is covered by irrigation infrastructure, leaving a large portion of farmland dependent on rainfall. This makes the success or failure of the monsoon a major factor in crop production.

Monsoon also helps in replenishing reservoirs, groundwater levels and irrigation systems. Lower reservoir levels due to less rainfall may also increase water stress in drought-prone regions, while hydropower generation could decline even as electricity demand rises during heatwaves. It can also impact the availability of water and the economic growth of the country.

How does rainfall drive food inflation, agriculture and GDP?

Rainfall plays a significant role in balancing food prices, agricultural produce and GDP growth. A good monsoon helps increase the production of cereals, pulses, vegetables and fruits, keeping the food prices in a reasonable range. However, a weaker monsoon can adversely affect key kharif and rabi crops, potentially driving up food prices and inflation

Around 50 per cent of India’s net sown area depends on rainfall for irrigation, making the monsoon crucial for farming activities. Adequate rainfall is also needed to maintain soil moisture and reservoir levels to improve crop yields.

Monsoon can also be a significant factor in affecting India’s GDP growth, given that agriculture accounts for about 15-18 per cent of it and also supports a significant share of employment. A good monsoon can boost farm incomes, rural spending, and support sectors like FMCG, automobiles, fertilisers, and consumer goods.

Is climate change making India’s monsoon more unpredictable?

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), climate change is a driving factor leading to unpredictable or inconsistent monsoon rainfall. While some regions experience intense rainfall in short periods, others face prolonged dry spells.

Climate change is also resulting in extreme weather events like heavy rainfall, floods, heatwaves and droughts. These weather situations can have a negative impact on the country’s agriculture, water management systems, and infrastructure.

Climate change has also resulted in El Nino, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal, weakening trade winds and altering global atmospheric circulation. An intense El Niño may weaken monsoons in India and affect crop production, and in turn, food prices. In the past, El Nino conditions have resulted in major droughts in India, including in 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 and 2015.

According to meteorologists, El Niño weakens the large-scale atmospheric circulation that helps pull moisture-laden winds towards the Indian subcontinent. This results in below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country.