&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "WION Decodes | What is 'Godzilla' El Niño and how can it impact the Indian monsoon?")
The world is bracing for a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño this year. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation and altering rainfall patterns across the globe. The phenomenon can influence everything from droughts to wildfires and floods in different parts of the world. Although El Niño develops far from India's shores, its effects are often felt across the subcontinent, making it a major concern for meteorologists, farmers and policymakers.
What is ‘Godzilla’ El Niño?
Despite the popularity of the term, ‘Godzilla El Niño’ is not an official scientific classification. The term was first widely used to describe the extraordinarily powerful 1997-98 El Niño event, which caused widespread droughts, floods, crop losses and economic damage across multiple continents. The weather pattern resurfaced during the 2015-16 El Niño, another exceptionally strong episode that contributed to record global temperatures and severe weather disruptions.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal, weakening trade winds and altering global atmospheric circulation. This changes rainfall and temperature patterns thousands of kilometres away. When the warming becomes particularly intense, the event is often informally labelled a “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño”.
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How does El Niño impact India?
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An intense El Niño may weaken monsoons in India. The southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and is significant for the country’s agricultural sector. A weaker monsoon can affect crop production, and in turn, food prices. It can also impact the availability of water and the economic growth of the country. In the past, El Niño conditions have resulted in major droughts in India, including in 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 and 2015.
According to meteorologists, El Niño weakens the large-scale atmospheric circulation that helps pull moisture-laden winds towards the Indian subcontinent. This results in below-normal rainfall across large parts of the country.
How an intense El Niño result in a chain of reactions
Although El Niño significantly impact the rain, it is not the only thing it can drive. The phenomenon can also make the weather more unpredictable. While seasonal rainfall may decline overall, some regions can still witness intense downpours, flash floods and extreme weather events. El Niño may increase the frequency of short-duration heavy rainfall events in some parts of the country, despite resulting in below-average rainfall. This means that India may face drought in some regions and flooding in others.
Reduced rainfall can adversely affect key kharif crops such as rice, pulses and sugarcane, potentially driving up food prices and inflation. Moreover, lower reservoir levels due to less rainfall may increase water stress in drought-prone regions, while hydropower generation could decline even as electricity demand rises during heatwaves.
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