Massive earthquake likely to hit Delhi in future? Here's what disaster management authority says
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Massive earthquake likely to hit Delhi in future? Here's what disaster management authority says")
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Based Vulnerability Atlas of India (1997) report, 6.5 per cent of houses in Delhi have high damage risk, and 85.5 per cent of houses have moderate damage risk. A vast number of multistorey reinforced concrete buildings in Delhi could pose a serious risk during the quake.
In the recent past, Delhi-NCR has been witnessing a series of seismic activities with multiple moderate quakes. However, in the past, the National Capital Region experienced multiple high quakes that resulted in the killing and injuring of several people. So, does Delhi lie among the high-risk areas where an earthquake of high magnitude could bring more casualties in future than the previous one?
Basically, the national capital area, which is a part of the North region, is located in zone IV, which is considered as fairly high seismicity where the general occurrence of earthquakes is of 5-6 magnitude, a few of magnitude 6-7 and occasionally of 7-8 magnitude. So, the seismic activities in North India, including the Himalayas, are due to the collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate. This is a continuous process occurring for the last 50 million years.
In the past, five earthquakes of Richter Magnitude between 5.5-6.7 have occurred in the UT of Delhi or close to it since 1720 AD. The most tragic earthquake was witnessed on 10 October 1956, of a Magnitude of 6.7, in which 23 persons were killed in Bulandshahr and some were injured in Delhi. The next was of M6.0 earthquake on 27 August 1960 near Delhi, wherein about 50 persons in Delhi were injured, and an earthquake near Moradabad on 15 August 1966 killed 14 persons in Delhi.
Should Delhi be prepared for a big Earthquake in future?
The National Disaster Management Authority revealed in 2019 that Delhi falls in Zone IV of India's seismic map, which poses a high risk of quakes in the region due to the presence of the Delhi-Haridwar Ridge, a geological structure that coincides with the extension of the Aravali Mountain belt under the Ganga basin. The report added that major Indian cities, from Delhi to Shimla, are at high risk.
Seismologists speculated that the next big earthquake in the Himalayan region will be highly destructive, impacting the landmass, and affecting more than 300 million people. The Himalayan earthquake is extremely dangerous based on the land setting, with urban infrastructure being more susceptible to violent shaking amid the quake.
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In addition, Delhi Development Authority confirmed that two major lineaments known as Delhi-Haridwar ridge and Delhi-Moradabad faults pass through the territory, both having the potential of generating earthquakes of magnitude up to MSK VIII level which will be quite probable in the Delhi territory. And, the normal depth coming a disaster could be 30 km.
How much damage will the big Earthquake in Delhi cause?
Based on Vulnerability Atlas of India (1997) report, 6.5 per cent of houses in Delhi have high damage risk, and 85.5 per cent of houses have moderate damage risk. This means a good number of houses are prone to disaster with the potential of several casualties. The report also adds that a vast number of multistorey reinforced concrete buildings in Delhi, especially those with open ground floors designed for vehicle parking, could pose a serious risk during a powerful earthquake.
The city is currently undergoing rapid infrastructure development, with numerous bridges, flyovers, and metro lines under construction. While newer transport systems are designed to be earthquake-resistant, older structures have been retrofitted to improve their seismic resilience.
Way ahead
A major earthquake in the national capital, a key hub for commerce and industry, would have far-reaching economic and political consequences, impacting not just Delhi’s residents but the entire nation.
Addressing this risk demands immediate and comprehensive discussion. The approach must be multidisciplinary, involving technical training, institutional capacity building, creation of technical guidelines, strengthening of legal and enforcement frameworks, and raising public awareness about earthquake preparedness.
