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Delayed but deadly: Why is Mumbai facing monsoon fury in an El Niño year?

Delayed but deadly: Why is Mumbai facing monsoon fury in an El Niño year?

Mumbai monsoons have proven to be deadly this year, despite El Niño gripping Earth. Photograph: (AFP)

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Heavy rains have lashed Mumbai in the past 7 days. Why is this happening when the world is in the grips of El Niño? The weather phenomenon has brought extreme heat to Europe, but Mumbai is witnessing a deluge. The answer lies in climate change.

Heavy rains have battered Mumbai between late June and July 8. According to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the city received an average rainfall of 61.13 mm during a period of 48 hours ending at 8 am on Wednesday. This is the wettest start to the monsoon for Mumbai since 2000. Approximately 1,240 mm of rainfall was recorded by July 6. This amounts to an entire month's rain drenching the city in just 7 days. The incessant rains have come in a year when Super El Niño is burning most parts of the world. The phenomenon is mostly linked with droughts and extreme heat, but also triggers floods in some regions.

Why is Mumbai witnessing heavy rainfall in an El Niño year?


Typically, El Niño delays the monsoon and causes fewer rainy days. Mumbai witnessed a delayed arrival, but still a massive deluge. Climate scientists explain that while El Niño still affects when the rain arrives, global warming is determining how it rains once it gets here.

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The year 2026 is witnessing an extreme El Niño. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of extreme effects, with NASA satellite capturing the swollen oceans that have registered higher than normal temperatures. The effects of El Niño, one of the strongest in 150 years, can be clearly seen in the case of Mumbai and the monsoon in India. It delayed the arrival of the monsoon by nearly two weeks. Then, once active weather systems developed over the Arabian Sea, the persistent shear zone triggered extreme rainfall.

Warmer Arabian Sea feeding clouds

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Arabian Sea is experiencing higher-than-normal surface temperatures and holding more moisture. It is acting like a massive fuel tank for the clouds, continuously feeding them with moisture. A dual system at work has further fuelled these conditions.

Active low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal travelled westward across central India. Moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal added abundant moisture to the core monsoon region. As it all came together over western India, and the moisture-heavy wind systems from the Arabian Sea hit the Western Ghats, the moisture-laden air moved upward. This has led to heavy, concentrated rain over Mumbai and adjoining areas.

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Anamica Singh

Anamica Singh is a Senior News Editor at WION, bringing over 17 years of deep media and journalism experience to the platform. Specialising in high-impact global journalism, she le...Read More