India warns of major ‘food crisis’ in coming months amid El Nino & wars | Gravitas

As wars rage across the world, and major shipping routes have been disrupted, the impact goes well beyond the energy crisis. What if I told you that the protracted wars may affect, the food on your plate?

This is not an exaggeration.

India has now warned of a major food crisis...

Speaking at an event organised by The Asia Society in New York, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar asserted that the world faces a major food crisis in the coming months, as wars in Ukraine and West Asia had compounded the effects of a super El Nino.

Amid an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War, Jaishankar hinted at the possibility of major grain exporters being unable to send their shipments out of the Black Sea.

He said, "We are already looking at significant fertiliser shortages because key producers have been in West Asia & Russia."

He also flagged the impact of super El Nino, which scientists have warned could cause almost half a million additional heat-related deaths worldwide by February 2027.

Highlighting that energy, food, fertilisers and finance were all under strain at once, he flagged the devastating impact on economies of the Global South.

Earlier this week, Ukraine accused Russia of damaging port infrastructure facilities in Ukraine's Black Sea region of Odesa.

Rescuers were seen working on the site of a destroyed building.

Now, these air strikes may have been confined to the Black Sea, but their consequences are not limited to the region.

Why is this the case?

Russia and Ukraine are significant producers and exporters of several commodities including wheat, corn, sunflower oil and fertilisers.

For instance, Russia and Ukraine account for around one-third of the global wheat trade, which mostly moves through Black Sea ports.

However, multiple drone and missile attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels by Russia and Ukraine, have shut down nearly 97% of their grain export capacity.

Overall, this conflict has disrupted close to 17% of world's grain exports.

This has resulted in higher food prices, especially impacting countries which depend on imports.

The situation has escalated as the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed due to the Iran war.

This strategic waterway caters to almost one-third of global fertiliser trade.

This is crucial as less fertilisers reaching the farmers imply smaller harvests, which can result in a food shortage months later.

Additionally, the disruption is compounded by rising prices of natural gas, which is a key input in fertiliser production, pushing costs higher and limiting output.

A few days earlier, the International Chamber of Commerce urged U.S. and Iran to accept UN's facilitation to resolve the fertiliser supply crisis, sparked by the Hormuz blockade.

Now, the El Nino impact is clearly visible in India.

During the June-September monsoon season, India witnessed a rainfall deficit of 13%, which is the fourth lowest seasonal rainfall since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901.

So far, the Government of India has declared a drought in five states—Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

Expressing concern over the drought situation, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan stated that he would maintain constant communication with the state governments.

For the upcoming rabi crop season, the minister said the centre would assist states in identifying suitable seeds and crop varieties that require less water, have shorter maturity periods and are suited to local soil and weather conditions.

Chouhan added that other parts of the country would also be assessed for drought status.

But where does the responsibility lie for a possible food crisis?

Taking a veiled dig at countries who are refusing to bring the wars to a closure, S Jaishankar said that policymakers have a responsibility to understand the consequences of their decisions on the rest of the world.

He also stressed that countries should not be so self-centred...