Brisbane, Australia

India’s bid to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) is now in a “must-win” territory after their latest draw against Australia at Gabba on Wednesday (Dec 18). The draw at Gabba leaves Rohit Sharma and Co in third spot and will now have to win at least one of their remaining two matches in the current cycle. Australia on the other hand sit second despite the draw but will have to be at their best for the remaining contests to avoid elimination from the race to the final, which takes place at Lord’s in June 2025.

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India in ‘must-win’ territory

The latest draw in Gabba leaves India with a win percentage (PCT) of 55.88 as they occupy the third spot while Australia, currently in second have a PCT of 58.89. With just two matches remaining in the WTC cycle, India must win at least one of their matches to qualify for the WTC final. However, a defeat in either match will see them leave their fate out of their own hands.

What are India’s equations to qualify for the WTC final?

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India have to win at least one remaining match against Australia, which gives them a better chance to fight for a place in the final in WTC. A draw coupled with a win will see India pocket the five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2-1, but in this case, they will need a favour from Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka should draw at least one of the two matches against Australia which will India qualify for the final.

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  1. If India wins BGT 3-1, then India will qualify for the WTC final
  2. If India wins BGT 2-1, then Sri Lanka needs to draw or win at least one match against Australia
  3. If India draw BGT 1-1, then Sri Lanka must draw or win at least one of their matches against Australia
  4. If India draw BGT 2-2, then Sri Lanka must draw or win at least one of their matches against Australia
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Any other result apart from the above equations will see India miss out on the WTC final at Lord’s in June 2025.

*Note: All calculations are done considering there is no points deduction for slow overrate.