India, Australia and Sri Lanka - all remain in contention for the one remaining spot in the WTC Final 2025. After South Africa became the first team to qualify directly for the summit clash scheduled for June 2025 at Lord’s, Australia strengthened their chances of reaching their second WTC Final on the trot after beating India in the fourth BGT Test at the MCG by 184 runs.

Advertisment

Though that win hasn’t guaranteed them a spot in the grand finale yet, it squashed India’s chances of making it thrice in a row, leaving the final match of the marquee series at the SCG to decide their fate. It remains bleak, but they still have an outside chance of reaching the WTC Final and completing their trophy cabinet with the only ICC title that has eluded them till now.

How can India still qualify for WTC Final after MCG loss?

Advertisment

India lost the fourth Test at the MCG—their second of the series to the hosts, conceding the lead they took after bagging a massive win in the series opener in Perth. With the scoreline reading 2-1 in Australia’s favour, they are beaming confidently, entering the fifth Test of the series with an upper hand over India.

Also read | BGT – Pat Cummins rates MCG Test win over India his ‘greatest ever’

For India to reach the WTC Final 2025, they must not only beat Australia significantly but also hope for other results to fall in place for them. Should India win at the SCG, their PCT (of 55.26) would be enough for them to finish second if Australia achieves no more than just a draw in two Tests in Sri Lanka. In that case, Australia’s PCT would read 53.51, while Sri Lanka would finish at 48.72 (with one win). 

Advertisment

However, in case of a draw in the final match of the series, India’s PCT would drop to 51.75, ruling them out of the WTC Final race; and this is because even if Australia play a draw at the SCG and lose to Sri Lanka 0-2, they would finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka would climb up to 53.85, piping India and Australia to qualify for their maiden WTC Final.

Which team stands a better chance?

Following the win in the MCG Test, Australia is a frontrunner to qualify for the WTC Final 2025 and face South Africa in the clash of titans. 

Should they beat India at the SCG Test starting January 3 next year, Australia will qualify regardless of the result against Sri Lanka that follows. 

If they win the final Test in Sydney, which sees them bagging the coveted BGT after ten years, and lose the two games in the Island Nation, their PCT would read 57.02 compared to India’s 50 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85. 

(With inputs from agencies)