What if I tell you that the next target for organised crime could be your morning brew?

Advertisment

Theft of coffee beans is on the rise in the United States, the world's largest coffee importer. Organised gangs are stealing shipments worth $180,000 per truckload, posing as transportation companies. Something that was a rare occurrence has now become a mainstream phenomenon, with dozens of thefts reported in the past year alone.

Coffee: The new Cocaine?

This gang obsession with coffee coincides with a 70 per cent rise in Arabica futures since November, pushing prices to all-time highs. Supply chain issues have disrupted the smooth coffee trade, especially in the world's largest coffee-producing nation - Brazil. 

Advertisment

Many smaller roasters are struggling with procuring coffee beans at current prices, while retailers push back against price hikes, citing a dent in sales. Major supermarkets have delayed negotiations, leading to shortages on shelves. This supply-demand mismatch has disrupted coffee's presence on the retailer's shelves and boosted demand on the black market.

Will coffee brew again?

Despite the ongoing crisis, analysts believe the worst is over. Prices are expected to drop by 30 per cent by the end of 2025. This can be attributed to a strong harvest in Brazil and the expansion of plantations in Brazil, India, Uganda and Ethiopia. 

Advertisment

If production meets expectations, price reductions can offer relief to roasters and retailers. But until then, coffee will be a prime target of organised crime.