With Hormuz in its grip, Iran ships more oil even as war halts others
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "With Hormuz in its grip, Iran ships more oil even as war halts others")
This handout natural-colour image acquired with MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite taken on February 5, 2025 shows the Gulf of Oman and the Makran region (C) in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz (L) and the northern coast of Oman (bottom) Photograph: (AFP)
Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz during the war, while Gulf producers halt shipments and global shippers avoid the strategic waterway
Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than it did before the war started, underscoring Tehran’s control over the strategic waterway that it has effectively shut to most other regional oil producers. While Gulf Arab producers from Saudi Arabia to Iraq are cutting output and searching for alternative routes to bypass the strait, Iran has continued exporting crude largely without disruption. Data from tanker-tracking firm Kpler shows Tehran maintaining and even slightly increasing shipments despite the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.
Since the war started on February 28, seven tankers have loaded Iranian oil, according to Kpler. At least two of the latest loadings originated inside the Persian Gulf. Over the past six days, tankers have taken on an average of 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude per day, higher than the roughly 2 million barrels per day exported in February. Although Iran’s weekly exports fluctuate, the recent rise suggests that its shipments are moving largely unhindered. It also indicates that China continues to purchase Iranian crude, providing a crucial financial lifeline to Tehran as it faces intense military pressure.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned it would attack vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz after US and Israeli airstrikes triggered the conflict. The threats have discouraged many commercial ships from using the passage, which links the Persian Gulf to global markets and handles roughly a third of the world’s oil trade. Iran has also launched drones and missiles at Gulf Arab oil infrastructure and warned it could set ships ablaze if they attempted to pass through the strait.
The escalating crisis has fueled fears that a worst-case scenario for global energy markets could be unfolding, potentially removing millions of barrels of oil from the market each day. Oil prices swung sharply in recent sessions, surging close to $120 a barrel on Monday before falling below $80 on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said the war would end “very soon.” Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for two weeks, global oil supplies could fall by about 3.8 million barrels per day, more than 3% of worldwide production.
Much of the Iranian oil currently moving across or toward the strait appears to be headed for China aboard vessels belonging to the so-called shadow fleet, according to Kpler. These older tankers, often sanctioned by the United States, are used by Iran and Russia to transport crude covertly. “Almost all ships crossing the Strait are linked to Iran or China,” said Christopher Long, head of intelligence at UK maritime-security firm Neptune P2P Group. “We are advising all shippers not to cross.”
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Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude-oil analysis at Kpler, said normal shipping traffic would likely resume only under limited conditions. “Only military escorts, a US-Israeli cease-fire or an Iranian capitulation would prompt shippers to resume transits,” Falakshahi said. He added that exports would likely restart gradually and “often while still dark.”
Last week, Trump announced plans to provide naval escorts for ships traveling through the strait, though such protection has not yet materialized. Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Revolutionary Guard Navy, warned against any attempt to escort vessels through the waterway. “Any passage of the US fleet and its allies will be halted by the net of Iranian missiles and suicide drones,” he said in a post on X. Shipping data suggests that only a small number of vessels have crossed the strait since the war began. Around 15 ships have transited the passage, most of them shadow-fleet tankers carrying Iranian crude to China and India, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Many of the ships are small Chinese tankers that attempt to signal their friendly status to Iranian forces while transiting the strait. “We are a Chinese ship. We are coming through; we are friendly,” the Chinese ships transmit in English to the Revolutionary Guard via loudspeakers and shortwave radio. The messages can be monitored by other vessels and were heard by The Wall Street Journal. Kpler said one tanker, Skywave, loaded oil last week from Kharg Island, the main Iranian export hub in the Persian Gulf’s northwest.
The vessel is owned by an Indian shell company that was sanctioned by the United States last year for allegedly funding Iran’s armed forces through billions of dollars in crude allocations. As of Tuesday, the ship, sailing under a reportedly false Comoros flag, was approaching the Strait of Hormuz, according to MarineTraffic. Another vessel, Cume, which is bound for China, is owned by a Dubai-based entity sanctioned by the US and sails under a reportedly false Guyana flag, according to the European Union database Equasis. It loaded 2 million barrels of Iranian crude on Feb. 19, crossed the strait last week, and is now in the Gulf of Oman, Kpler data shows.
A third tanker, Ping Shun, owned by a Shandong-based company that typically exports to China, loaded 600,000 barrels from Kharg Island and is also in the Gulf of Oman. Despite their willingness to transit the strait, shadow-fleet tankers still face significant risks. At least two such vessels have already been hit by Iran since the conflict began. Meanwhile, many global shipping companies are struggling with disruptions.
Danish shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk has about 10 vessels trapped inside the Persian Gulf. The company says it could take one to ten days to resume normal operations after a cease-fire is reached. “We won’t put our colleagues in harm’s way,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told the Journal.
Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, the US, Gulf nations, and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos, and videos.
