Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize or will it go to surprise candidate? Here's what experts suggest

The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is scheduled to be announced on Friday, 10 October at 11 am Oslo time (2:30 pm IST) by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Prior to the announcement, speculation around potential contenders has intensified. Out of those, the most vocal contender is United States President Donald Trump, who has continuously claimed for the suitable candidate who deserves the prize for supposedly resolving multiple global conflicts, including his oft-repeated claim of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after their four-day clash in May.

After the Israel and Hamas agreement to pause the fighting in Gaza and release all hostages, White House dubbed Donald Trump as 'The Peace President' on the social media platform X. However, despite Trump's consistent public campaign and high-profile endorsements, international experts widely agree that Trump will not receive the honour — at least not this year.

"No, it will not be Trump this year," said Peter Wallensteen, a Swedish professor and expert on international affairs, in an interview with the news agency AFP news agency. "But perhaps next year? By then, the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis," he added.

The director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Nina Graeger, indicated that there are several reasons why Trump’s record does not align with Alfred Nobel’s intent. “He has withdrawn the US from the World Health Organisation and from the Paris Accord on climate, he has initiated a trade war on old friends and allies," she said. “That is not exactly what we think about when we think about a peaceful president or someone who really is interested in promoting peace," Graeger added.

Dr Samir Puri, director of the Centre for Global Governance and Security at Chatham House, told Sky News that “there’s an absurdity to Trump’s claims, but like many of his claims, within the absurdity there are sometimes grains of truth." However, he underscored that there is a “vast difference between getting fighting to stop in the short-term and resolving the root causes of the conflict." He also added that the efforts of Trump amount to “conflict management" rather than resolution.

Who has nominated Trump for the Nobel?

• Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
• Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet
• US Congressman Buddy Carter
• Lawmakers from Sweden and Norway

If not Trump, then who will win the prize?

This year, the Nobel Committee has nominated a total of 338 individuals and organisations for the coveted Nobel Peace Prize, although the list is kept sealed for 50 years. In this list, the eligible nominators include lawmakers, government officials, past laureates, select academics, and members of the Nobel committee.

However, there are no clear and fixed frontrunners in 2025, as speculation revolves around a few high-profile contenders. Among the names being discussed are:

• Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer network providing aid to civilians amid war and famine.
• Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
• The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, known for its election monitoring work.
• United Nations Secretary General António Guterres.
• UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees).
• UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) – The Palestinian refugee relief agency.
• The International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
• Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders – Both organisations have been highlighted for their commendable work in a year marked by record journalist deaths, particularly in Gaza.

Some other names officially include:

• The Prime Minister of Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim, was nominated for his “commitment to dialogue, regional harmony, and peace through non-coercive diplomacy." His role also includes mediating the Thailand–Cambodia ceasefire.
• Tesla CEO Elon Musk was nominated by Slovenian EU parliamentarian Branko Grims for defending freedom of speech.
• The former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was nominated by the Pakistan World Alliance and Norwegian party Partiet Sentrum for his “work with human rights and democracy in Pakistan."

Some observers believe the Nobel Committee may use this year’s award to reaffirm its support for a global order that faces increasing challenges from leaders like Donald Trump. Possible recipients in this category include UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), or UNRWA, the Palestinian relief organisation.

Others suggest the prize could focus on global justice or press freedom, which will honour institutions which include the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, or watchdog groups like the Committee to Protect Journalists and Reporters Without Borders.