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Eight summers ago, the world leaders converged together and ratified the 2015 Paris climate accords, setting a goal of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F) of preindustrial levels. Fast forward today and it appears that the goal is no longer achievable as global average temperatures hover around 1.0-1.3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level. Now, World Meteorological Organisation and Britain’s Met Office have already said there is a 48 per cent chance that the world may miss the target once in the next five years at least.

In January, a research report published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output also stated that global warming is already on the verge of crossing the 1.5 °C threshold in the next decade. 

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Experts are of the view that the target will be breached before the United Nations-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) comes out with its next report - expected at the end of this decade.  

What did the IPCC report say?

Last month, IPCC released a damning report, suggesting that time for saving the planet was running out. The report, compiled after five years of research made no qualms about the fact that there is very little chance of keeping the world from warming by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

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According to the report, approximately 3.3-3.6 billion people are “highly vulnerable” to climate change while increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security.

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With the planet still excessively reliant on fossil fuels, the Paris signatories who have pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 may have to start showing immediate results. According to research, to reach the said target, 43 per cent of emissions will have to be cut by 2030 using 2019 as a baseline.  

Is there hope?

Despite the gloom, the IPCC report had one sliver of hope. It noted that the climate narrative was still being written and the rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions between 2010-2019 was notably less than the rate of increase in the previous decade.

Moreover, in March, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a landmark resolution under which an opinion would be sought from the UN's highest court i.e. the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding legal obligations that nations are under to protect climate systems and people affected by it. 

EXPLAINED | UNGA adopts landmark resolution on climate justice. What does it mean?

According to experts, ICJ's influence might encourage the nations to 'take bolder and stronger climate action' steps to protect the world. Additionally, ICJ can help shape international laws and bring international legal instruments, such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child — which, incidentally, have the power and force of law for countries that have ratified them. 

(With inputs from agencies)

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