Washington DC, United States

With less than six months left for the United States presidential elections, it seems like the country will witness a close race between former President Donald Trump and his successor Joe Biden, yet again. A recent survey, on Monday (May 13) suggested that Trump has maintained his narrow lead in five key battleground states with voters expressing their discontent with Biden’s handling of the economy and the war in Gaza. 

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What did the poll find?

The survey conducted by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump was leading among registered voters in five of the six key states – Michigan (49 per cent to 42 per cent), Arizona (49 per cent to 42 per cent), Nevada (50 per cent to 38 per cent), Georgia (49 per cent to 39 per cent) and Pennsylvania (47 per cent to 44 per cent). 

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According to the report, the incumbent president has a narrow lead among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin with 47 per cent to 45 per cent. Notably, Biden had secured a victory in all six states in the last presidential election in 2020. 

The NYT report noted that the results have remained “mostly unchanged” since the last series of polls in November. Since then, one of the four criminal cases against Trump went to trial in Manhattan, while Biden’s campaign poured tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the key states. 

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The polls show that issues like the rising cost of living, immigration, Israel’s war in Gaza and a desire for change have affected the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee’s campaign. Nearly 70 per cent of voters believe the American political and economic systems need major changes or “even to be torn down entirely.”

Biden and Trump are mostly tied among young (18-to-29-year-olds) and Hispanic voters, according to the poll. 

Notably, the former president has surprisingly gained the support of more than 20 per cent of Black voters – the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since 1964. 

Robert F Kennedy Jr to sway the election?

The latest poll also found that independent Robert F Kennedy Jr’s candidacy has the potential to sway the election. According to the report, Kennedy Jr won an average of 10 per cent of the vote across the six states. 

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Earlier surveys had suggested that Kennedy Jr, who is a part of the country’s most famous Democratic family, could win more votes than Biden. However, more recent reports suggest that he could hurt Trump’s campaign. 

Notably, the candidacy of the nephew of 35th US President John F Kennedy had been opposed by his entire family, who have since voiced their support for Biden. 

Kennedy Jr, the anti-vaccine activist, according to his campaign has qualified to appear on the ballots in Michigan, California and Utah. 

(With inputs from agencies)