US oil prices at $100 could be bad news for Trump ahead of midterm elections

Oil is approaching the psychologically important $100-a-barrel price. Americans are already paying record-high prices for the Labor Day period. This could become a political problem for Trump and the Republican Party as the November midterm elections loom. At the time of writing, Brent futures briefly hit $100 a barrel. The US West Texas Intermediate was around $94.13 on Wednesday (Sep 9). Brent has risen about 25 per cent since early August as renewed fighting with Iran crushed hopes of an end to the six-month conflict. Reports suggested that oil could hit $100 as early as Friday. Here is why it matters for Trump's midterm prospects.

The Iran war is showing up at the pump for Americans

Trump returned to office promising an energy boom, lower prices and inflation relief. The US military adventure in Iran upended these plans, emerging as a major source of uncertainty for the global oil market. Much of the Gulf's critical energy infrastructure is under attack or threat, caused by US strikes, Iranian attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, and Houthi hits on Saudi targets. Oil shipping is disrupted from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea and further afield. Iran conflict is leading to supply fears, causing higher crude prices and renewing inflation pressure on the US.

$4 gasoline is already a political problem

The national average price of regular gasoline was about $4.15 a gallon around Labor Day, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), a record for this holiday period. AAA said the national average never exceeded $4 on Labor Day. For diesel prices, the national average climbed to a record of roughly $5.85-$5.90 a gallon. Diesel also powers much of America's freight, agriculture, construction and rail economy. And that could contribute to the inflation problem, as higher diesel and petrol prices hurt household budgets.

Oil prices spike: The timing could hardly be worse for Republicans

Republicans are entering the midterms with narrow margins, even as a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump approval ratings at just 33 per cent, with only 25 per cent of Americans saying the Iran war is worthwhile. A Financial Times/Focaldata survey found that 57 per cent of voters felt financially worse off under Trump. That is precisely why petrol prices are so dangerous politically.

Republicans have spent years telling voters that Democratic policies were responsible for expensive petrol, but that won't wash this election season.

Democratic candidates have been using gas prices as a political weapon against Republican incumbents, linking Trump's Iran policy to higher cost of living for Americans.

How oil prices historically affected the prospects of the ruling party

A 2026 Morgan Stanley analysis found that since 1978, midterm cycles in which gasoline prices rose from January of the previous year through October of the election year were associated with an average loss of 32 House seats for the incumbent party, as opposed to lower prices, in which case the average loss was six seats. A TIME analysis said that in the three midterms in which inflation-adjusted oil prices were around or above $100 a barrel, the ruling party lost an average of 29 House seats. An energy shock just ahead of midterms is a scary prospect for the incumbent party.

A looming inflation: Why Trump needs to bring down gas prices

If gasoline prices fall dramatically in October, Trump - who put himself at the centre of the Republican campaign - can point to the decline as evidence that his administration's strategies worked. But if they still hover around $4 or higher, Democrats will be able to tell voters that Trump's war made energy more expensive.

But will the market correct itself? Brent repeatedly approached $100 in past months without decisively breaking through it. So far, whatever oil is passing via Hormuz, alternative export routes, rising production outside OPEC and weaker Chinese demand have prevented a larger price shock.

But if prolonged disruptions to oil shipments cause Brent to remain around $100, the pinch at the pump could persist. And that could translate into anger against Trump and the Republicans at the elections.