&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "US Midterms: How opinion polls, prediction markets and stock movements are placed")
United States is soon going to witness mid term elections which will be President Donald Trump's litmus test of his policies and how much popular he maintains among the American people. If we see the latest approval average poll of September, Trump seems to be loosing grasp as the rating nears its lowest levels of his second term.
According to FiftyPlusOne, a polling and elections tracking website that aggregates major polls, Trump's average approval rating as of Sept 25 was 34.9%, while his disapproval rating stood at 62.1% among US adults.
The highest average approval rating of his second term was 54%, last seen on Jan.22, 2025.
The drop in Trump's approval ratings comes amid Americans expressing concerns about the economy and his handling of issues like the trade war, immigration enforcement efforts and the ongoing war in Iran.
In another poll conducted by the Ney York Times (Oct. 1, 2026) 37% of Americans are in favour of Trump while 61% disapprove of him.
While the latest Rasmussen poll (Sept. 30, 2026) puts the approval rating at 44% and disapproval at 55%.
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The strong disapproval rating breaks the previous record of 45 percent which is more than what George W Bush's 41 percent mark ahead of the 2006 midterms.
Recent generic congressional polling show Democrats gaining ground and achieving substantial gains to potentially retake the House and challenge for the Senate.
Look at markets and stock movements amid upcoming midterms
Meanwhile, Wall Street indexes have closed highly volatile third quarter. In September, the S&P 500 and MSCI All Country World index were at their peaks, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq traded at a new high of 27,288 points just last week, according to Reuters.
But what is worrisome among the glittering statistics is that the S&P 500 rose only 2 per cent. Around 40 per cent of S&P 500 stocks are down for the year, and a quarter of the index's constituents have fallen 10 per cent or more, reported Economic Times.
The market breadth is the narrowest since 2000 with AI being the only face saver. Over half of the S&P 500's market capitalisation is now composed of AI or AI related companies.
The bond market is indicating the Fed has more work to do. So will the Fed take a move in this regard by the end of this month, just before the US midterm elections?
Ultimately, it will be difficult for the fourth quarter to match the last three month's swaying graph, but investors should brace themselves amid expected interest rate rises in the US and around the world and long-term employment outlook among others.
