&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "US midterm elections 2026: Republicans were favoured in February. Why are Democrats ahead now?")
The race for control of the US Congress is entering its final stretch, with the political landscape looking markedly different from the picture seen earlier this year. With the November 3 midterm elections approaching, prediction markets now put the chances of Democrats taking the House of Representatives at roughly 92 per cent. Their chances of winning control of the Senate are lower, but still around 60-63 per cent, according to current Kalshi and Polymarket prices.
These figures are market-based probabilities, not forecasts of the final result. They can move quickly as new polling, campaign developments and economic news emerge.
From February to October
The shift is notable because Republicans entered the year with a more favourable political environment and control of both chambers.
But the picture began changing during the spring and summer. By February, Democrats were already showing strength in national congressional polling. An Economist/YouGov survey conducted February 13 - 16 found Democrats ahead of Republicans by seven percentage points on the congressional ballot, 47 per cent to 40 per cent.
The latest campaign environment has also brought traditionally Republican states into greater focus. Reuters reported this week that Democrats are increasingly competitive in several states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Texas and Kansas.
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Why the Senate remains a tougher fight
The Senate map is more complicated than the House. Republicans currently hold a 53 - 47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Several Republican-held seats are now being closely contested, increasing the possible routes to a Democratic Senate majority. But the prediction markets remain considerably less certain about the Senate than the House. Other forecasting systems also show a Democratic advantage while producing different probabilities – another reminder that these numbers can change before voting begins.
For now, the numbers show how dramatically the midterm battlefield has moved since the beginning of 2026, with Democrats entering October in a considerably stronger position in the market than they were earlier in the year.
