US intelligence assesses Iran can shut Strait of Hormuz at will after conflict: Report

US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has gained effective control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz following the war involving the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic, CNN reported, citing two sources.

The assessment said Tehran now has the ability to close the vital waterway whenever it chooses, giving Iran a powerful tool to influence the global economy. The development comes as a memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington, which is expected to be signed on Friday.

The agreement is mainly focused on reopening the key shipping route as a condition for further discussions, including nuclear talks and sanctions relief. However, intelligence assessments indicate that Iran demonstrated during the conflict that it could maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz despite joint efforts by the US and Israel and could completely block maritime traffic if required.

Iran uses energy routes as a strategic pressure tool

Iran has also shown its ability to target energy infrastructure in Gulf countries, which it used effectively during the war, CNN reported, citing a source. The move has provided Tehran with another asymmetric option that it could use in future negotiations.

A senior US official told CNN that Iran would not receive “any benefits” from the framework agreement unless the Strait of Hormuz remains open and Tehran follows the other commitments it accepted.

The official did not specify the benefits but said the US would reduce its blockade measures in line with Iran's restoration of shipping movement through the strait.

“If Iran 'performs, the relief follows, and American leverage holds the entire way”, the senior official added.

Even as both sides appear to have reached an agreement to reopen the waterway and end the current conflict, sources said Iran had been considering an economic “nuclear option” if talks with Washington collapse.

Under this plan, Iran could use the Houthis, its main proxy force in Yemen, to shut the Bab el Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. The waterway is another major global trade route and has played a key role in shipping during the months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump says Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen on Friday

The latest US intelligence assessment has raised questions about Iran’s ability to use global trade routes as leverage beyond the current agreement.

Earlier on Monday, US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was “already partially opened” and would be fully reopened on Friday when the US and Iran are expected to formally sign the memorandum of understanding.

“They’re doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they’ve already found, but … ships are starting to go out now,” Trump said during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit. “On Friday, it’ll be completely open.”

“I don’t think we’re going to need much help, because we have an agreement where it’s going to be open, and it’s toll-free. We had a little argument on that; it’s toll-free,” Trump added.

However, Trump has not provided details on how any future agreement would stop Iran from taking similar action again, especially after the US removes its naval blockade and reduces its military presence in the region.